Chlor-alkali global utilisation rates to rise in next five years

21 June 2012 10:37  [Source: ICIS news]

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Utilisation rates in the global chlor-alkali market are expected to increase in the next five years, driven by growing demand for vinyls in the emerging economies of Asia, a senior financial executive said on Thursday.

“We are facing very challenging times, which are impacting Chinese growth, but we expect a recovery driven by the developing economies,” Mikiya Yamada, Managing Director at Barclays Securities Japan, said during a presentation at the 16th World Chlor-alkali Conference (21/22 June), organised by ICIS and Tecnon OrbiChem.

Yamada said that chlor-alkali demand will increase in those countries with higher real GDP growth rates, especially in those which show lower per-capita polyvinyl chloride (PVC) consumption at present, such as India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.

“Over the past 10 years, GDP growth has been dominated by developing countries such as India and China, which are consuming a lot of chlorine,” he said.

“Five years from now, we believe that utilisation rates will improve in the vinyls market, driven by infrastructure developments not only in China but also in India and Indonesia”.

At the same time, the share of global GDP of the Group of Three (G3), including Japan, Germany and the US, is expected to shrink, as is their share of fixed capital formations.

According to a joint study by IHS and Barclays Research, out of a global capacity of 84.6m dmt (dry metric tonnes), China currently accounts for 41%, followed by the Americas with 21%, Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) with 18%, the rest of Asia with 16% and the Middle East and Africa with 4%.

China represents 34% of global demand, followed by Europe and the CIS with 20%, North America with 18% and South America with 5%.

($1 = €0.79)

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By: Abache Abreu
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