05 September 2012 18:29 [Source: ICIS news]
WASHINGTON (ICIS)--Further deceleration in manufacturing and the overall ?xml:namespace>
In its second downgrade for the US economic outlook since the beginning of the year, the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI) said that it expects US gross domestic product (GDP) expansion for full year 2012 will be only 2% and that the nation’s economic growth will slow still further in 2013 to only 1.7%.
In February MAPI’s economists had forecast 2012 GDP expansion of 2.2% and 2013 growth of 2.4%.
But that outlook was lowered in the alliance’s June appraisal, dropping to 2.1% GDP growth this year and a 2.1% pace for full year 2013.
In just six months, MAPI economists have lowered their estimate for 2013 GDP growth from 2.4% to 1.7%.
In normal times, the
MAPI chief economist Daniel Meckstroth said that the nation’s annual growth rate “will decelerate as the pace of business equipment spending slows”.
“While there is pent-up demand for replacing worn equipment, productivity-improving investment and capacity expansion,” he said, “it is uncertainty about the ‘fiscal cliff', declining business activity in Europe and worries about a hard landing in
The so-called “fiscal cliff” refers to the expiration of multiple consumer and business tax cuts at the end of this year and congressionally mandated major reductions in
A recent congressional study warned that unless Congress and the White House can come to terms on a measure to avoid or modify those tax increases and spending cuts, they will trigger a new
Meckstroth noted that while manufacturing output earlier this year expanded at a pace greater than the overall
In the second quarter this year, he said, “manufacturing production grew at only a 1% rate compared to 1.7% for GDP”.
Meckstroth said MAPI expects that going forward, the US manufacturing sector will not show growth rates any better than the overall economy into early 2013, but that production should show more strength beginning in the second quarter next year.
The 79-year-old MAPI advocates on behalf of US manufacturing and provides economic analysis for its approximately 500 member firms, including many chemicals producers.
Paul Hodges studies key influences shaping the chemical industry in Chemicals and the Economy
For the latest chemical news, data and analysis that directly impacts your business sign up for a free trial to ICIS news - the breaking online news service for the global chemical industry.
Get the facts and analysis behind the headlines from our market leading weekly magazine: sign up to a free trial to ICIS Chemical Business.
|ICIS news FREE TRIAL|
|Get access to breaking chemical news as it happens.|
|ICIS Global Petrochemical Index (IPEX)|
|ICIS Global Petrochemical Index (IPEX). Download the free tabular data and a chart of the historical index|
Asian Chemical Connections