26 September 2012 19:28 [Source: ICIS news]
CAMBRIDGE, Maryland (ICIS)--The US economy will see continued if slow growth into next year but will turn down in the second half of 2013 and slide into a new recession in 2014, a forecasting firm said on Wednesday.
Brian Beaulieu, executive director at the Institute for Trend Research (ITR), told a specialty chemicals business conference that his firm expects the ?xml:namespace>
He noted that
“Banks are lending, retail sales are up, non-residential construction is improving,” Beaulieu said, adding: “And residential construction, which is 9% of the nation’s economy and was dead in the water a year ago, now is improving.”
He also noted that new construction by US chemicals producers is up by 50% from a year earlier.
However, because of some fundamental structural problems in the US economy – including the highest level of national debt since World War II – Beaulieu said ITR is forecasting that the slow upward momentum of growth likely will peak in mid-year 2013, then turn down in the second half of next year before falling into recession for full year 2014.
He said he expects
Beaulieu said the
“If you are 43 years old or younger now, life is going to get a bit more difficult in the future,” he told industry executives. “If you’re over 43, then 2017 would be a good time to retire.”
He said there are three “mega-trends” that chemicals producers and other businesses should anticipate and prepare to meet.
“The first is demographics. If you live and work in a country whose population is growing, you and your company win,” he said. “If you’re doing business in a country, such as
Second, he said, inflation will rise and later interest rates will climb sharply as the US Federal Reserve Board moves to confront the inflationary gain. “Your business planning should anticipate this and model to meet it,” he said.
Third, he said, “Taxes are going to go up, and it doesn’t matter who is in the White House, Obama or Romney, taxes are going to go up.”
In addition, Beaulieu dismissed widespread worries among chemical producers and other businesses about the possibility of a second term for President Barack Obama.
“Here’s our take on the election,” he said, “We don’t care.”
Paul Hodges studies key influences shaping the chemical industry in Chemicals and the Economy
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