11 October 2012 15:29 [Source: ICIS news]
LONDON (ICIS)--Volatility in feedstock prices was the leading concern for delegates at the 46th annual European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) meeting in Budapest, which ran from 6-10 October.
The cautious optimism seen at EPCA in 2011 has given way to outright caution, with many players expressing anxiety about margins.
One European olefins producer said the mood at the conference was “not good”, with “people unwilling to commit to anything because of all the uncertainties next year.”
A propylene oxide (PO) buyer said: “All we want is stability – nobody cares about the level, the market will adjust to the level.”
Lack of profitability has become a serious problem for petrochemical producers, owing to the difficulty of passing on high feedstock costs at a time of low demand.
One monopropylene glycol (MPG) producer said: “It is not an easy place to be. It is a rollercoaster from feast to famine and then back again.”
MPG producers have not been able to pass on feedstock propylene increases in recent months, and are hoping that a boost in seasonal demand will materialise soon and help support some upward price movement.
Producers of acrylic acid (AA) and acrylate esters have also been struggling with high propylene costs this year.
“The killer this year has been raw materials,” said one producer, noting that its focus in 2013 would be on improving margins.
However, not everyone believed that the pain was being shared equally between buyers and sellers.
“We think producers are milking the high-cost situation. We worry about Europe long-term – we all have a choice not to invest in Europe,” said one ethylene derivatives consumer.
Another effect of increased volatility is the move from longer contract periods to shorter ones.
Market sentiment regarding the fourth quarter was gently bearish, with the approach of the Christmas holidays likely to discourage consumers from building stocks.
However, the prevalence of hand-to-mouth buying throughout the year means that there will probably be only limited destocking towards the end of the quarter.
While no significant changes were anticipated for the remainder of 2012, participants in the olefins markets indicated that a heavy turnaround schedule is likely to keep prices high during the first half of 2013.
A key talking point among aromatics players was the future of European benzene pricing and its continued impact on downstream pricing.
Since the beginning of 2012, the benzene market has been on an upward path with availability restrictions due to tight pyrolisis gasoline (pygas) supply driving numbers up.
“Benzene will continue to behave as it did this year,” said a styrene trader. “If crude stays high this will be reflected in benzene and styrene pricing.”
The closure of producer INEOS's styrene monomer (SM) and polystyrene (PS) units at Marl in Germany this month, as well as several downstream units coming online in the Middle East and Egypt, will keep European styrene supply limited in 2013.
“Material will be diverted from Europe to these sites,” one trader said. “We will also see ARA [Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp] cargo leave the region, which will keep Europe tight.”
However, one expandable polystyrene (EPS) producer pointed out that high styrene prices do not mean high profits for suppliers.
“With the type of money involved when costs are this high, there are always credit risk issues,” said the source. “Of course, high prices mean that the end-use markets like automotive and construction will lead buyers to look at alternatives like polyurethanes [PU] and mineral fibres.”
In the EO market, there were expectations that supply would tighten in the next few years, and a source at Shell said the company was considering whether to expand EO production capacity at its Moerdijk site in the Netherlands.
A major EO producer had said on Sunday that European supply would get “shorter and shorter in the coming years,” and would be particularly tight in 2013.
On Monday, the Shell source discussed the proposed expansion project in Moerdijk, saying that it was still in the “exploratory” stage, and the company was looking for interested parties willing to co-locate.
Short-term growth prospects for nylon are seen as weak, with most players expecting a fall in consumption in 2013.
Adipic acid (ADA) demand is not expected to improve before the second quarter of 2013, on account of weak automotive demand caused by bearish macroeconomic conditions and a downturn in Chinese growth.
In the caprolactam market, expectations for 2013 demand are mixed. Some players are forecasting a recovery in the second half of the year based on expectations of further monetary stimulus packages in Asia and the US, which will bolster exports.
European nylon (or polyamide) 6,6 sources expect downstream engineering plastic demand in 2013 to be up to 10% below 2012 levels globally, while average expectations are for demand to be around 5% below 2012 levels because of weak macroeconomic conditions both in Europe and Asia.
Many players in other petrochemical markets are expecting consumption levels in 2013 to be approximately in line with 2012 volumes.
The impact of shale gas in the US was addressed by Tom Crotty, president of the EPCA and chief executive of INEOS Olefins & Polymers, in his opening speech to the conference.
Shale gas developments in the US have led to a “truly astonishing renaissance” in US petrochemicals that will have ramifications around the world, Crotty said on Monday.
The development of shale gas has led to a shift in global competitiveness that has pushed the US right up the scale of competitive industries, he said.
Crotty said that increased feedstock availability in the US has led to no fewer than 11 ethylene expansions now announced and a further seven being considered.
($1 = €0.78)
Nel Weddle, Julia Meehan, Heidi Finch, Mark Victory, Truong Mellor and Helena Strathearn contributed to this story.
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