IEA lowers 2012 global oil demand projections

12 October 2012 15:18  [Source: ICIS news]

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its global oil demand projection for 2012 and 2013 by 100,000 bbl/day to 89.7m bbl/day and 90.5m bbl/day respectively citing lower demand from Europe, the Americas and China.

The IEA demand growth forecasts for 2012 was lowered to 700,000 bbl/day, while the growth forecast for 2013 was unchanged at 800,000 bbl/day.

The IEA also reduced its global oil demand growth projection for 2011-2016 by 500,000 bbl/day. The IEA attributed the expected decline to subdued levels of economic growth resulting from debt concerns amongst OECD [Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development] nations and increased energy efficiency.

The IEA also expects oil prices to soften out towards 2016 as strains on supply are reduced by lower levels of demand growth which will also serve to boost OPEC spare capacity.

The IEA believes non-OPEC production growth will recover to around 700,000 bbl/day in 2013 with production rising to 53.9m bbl/day. Outages cut 2012 non-OPEC growth forecasts to around 400,000 bbl/day, with output is estimated at 53.2 m bbl/day in 2012.

The IEA estimates that OPEC crude oil supply fell to an eight-month low in September, down 510,000 bbl/day to 31.17m bbl/day. Higher supplies from Iraq and Libya failed to offset reduced output from Nigeria, Iran and Saudi Arabia, the IEA said.

OECD industry stocks declined by a counter-seasonal 11.2m bbl in August, the IEA said. The decline was attributed primarily to a stronger than seasonal draw in the US after Hurricane Isaac disrupted production and imports towards the end of the month.

However, preliminary data suggests that OECD stocks rebounded by 13.0m bbl in September. Forward demand cover stands at 58.8 days, 0.1 days lower than July, the IEA added.

By: James Dennis
+65 6780 4327

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