07 December 2012 11:48 [Source: ICIS news]
LONDON (ICIS)--North America will become a net exporter of oil and gas by 2035 as the continent ramps up local production and reduces demand with increased transport efficiency, a senior energy analyst said at a conference on Thursday.
Delivering the keynote address at the first annual ICIS Refining and Petrochemical Conference in London, Capella Festa, a senior analyst for the International Energy Agency (IEA), said policies dictating energy efficiency for transport in the US and Canada are having a structural impact on oil and gas demand, and changing trade flows.
Ms Festa said the change to net exporter status is 55%-driven by increased local supplies and 45%-driven by energy efficiency measures.
“Supply will go up to a peak of Saudi [Arabia] levels but will then decrease, but will be met with less demand," she said.
“A huge part of energy efficiency is in insulating buildings, which largely remains unrealised. Economically viable efficiency measures can halve energy demand growth for 2035, an oil demand saving equal to the current production of Russia and Norway,” she added.
Festa also outlined some of the findings from the Iraq Energy Outlook, a special report from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2012.
She said: “By 2013 almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports will go to Asia, as North America’s emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade.
“Our forecasts show Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035, and by the 2030s it becomes the second largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia," she added.
The World Energy Outlook 2012 report forecasts that global energy demand will rise by over one third in the period to 2035, underpinned by rising living standards in China, India and the Middle East.
($1 = €0.77)
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