11 December 2012 12:33 [Source: ICIS news]
LONDON (ICIS)--World oil demand during the fourth quarter of 2012 is forecast to have almost doubled from the previous quarter, owing to an improvement in US demand, OPEC said on Tuesday.
In its December monthly oil report, the cartel estimated fourth-quarter growth at 1.0m bbl/day year on year, “as US demand moved from deep contraction to minor growth.”
However, OPEC expects world oil demand growth in 2013 to remain at the same level as this year overall, at 800,000 bbl/day.
The report attributed this to a “weakness in the global economy” which is causing a “great deal of uncertainty in the forecast for world oil demand.”
“A large amount of this risk can be attributed not only to the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) but also to China and India,” it added.
OPEC predicts that 2013 could see an end to the slowdown in the world economy, with global year-on-year GDP growth of 3.2% compared to 3.0% this year.
“The main support comes from the improving economy in the US, which has been lifted by some advances in the labour and the housing markets... moreover, the contraction in the eurozone has been less-than-expected in the 3Q12 [third quarter of 2012],” the report said.
Although OPEC believes these indicators point to a tentative recovery in the second half of the year which is likely to be carried over into 2013, the organisation reported that many uncertainties continue to place downward pressure on demand.
“The most important will be avoiding the fiscal cliff in the US, further decisions on austerity issues in the eurozone, and balancing the need to reduce the fiscal debt burden while stimulating growth in Japan.”
Meanwhile, non-OPEC production is expected to increase by 900,000 bbl/day, supported by growth from North America, Africa, Eurasia and Latin America, while OECD Western Europe is likely to see a continued decline.
The growth in total non-OPEC supply including OPEC NGL’s (natural gas liquids) and non-conventional oils of around 1.1m bbl/day is expected to outpace the increase in world oil demand growth in 2013.
This is likely to resulting in demand for OPEC crude averaging 29.7m bbl/day in 2013, 400,000 bbl/day less than estimated levels in 2012, the report adds.
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