10 January 2013 12:13 [Source: ICIS news]
LONDON (ICIS)--A bottoming out of several key economic indicators indicates that the eurozone could see GDP growth from the second quarter of this year, Austria-based bank Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) said on Thursday.
“The leading indicators – the Purchasing Managers’ [PMI] and the Institute for Supply Management [ISM] Index – are bottoming out and should start to climb again in the first half of the year,” said Peter Brezinschek, head of Raiffeisen Research, a unit of the central and eastern Europe (CEE)-focused bank.
Concluding that the current winter quarter of 2013 would bring stagnation in the eurozone and marginal growth in the US, Brezinschek added: “From the middle of the year, therefore, net exports and – due to falling inflation rates – private consumption could start adding to growth again.”
Quarterly eurozone GDP should gradually rise to 0.1% in Q2, then to 0.4% in Q3, while quarterly GDP growth in the US should climb from 0.2% in Q1 to 0.5% in Q3, Brezinschek said.
RBI cautioned that the second half of 2012 saw the economic downturn also reach the “growth bastions” of Germany and Austria, and was also visible in the Q3 GDP figures of central and eastern European states, with “even former growth motors such as Poland and Slovakia now faced with the intensity of the recession in Europe”.
The banking group’s 2013 GDP expectations were 2.1% for central and eastern Europe, against 2.2% for 2012, 0.5% for central Europe, compared to 0.9% in 2012, and 1.3% for southeastern Europe, against a fall of 0.2% in the previous year.
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