11 January 2013 11:32 [Source: ICB]
A move to rebuild in the US northeast after Hurricane Sandy could drive demand while cost pressures persist
"We're expecting a strong start to 2013," an MMA buyer said. "We're hoping it matches the strong start we had in 2012."
Most of the optimism is being fuelled by speculation that construction projects will start in the northeast US regions hit by Hurricane Sandy. Buyers and producers expect that new construction will create demand for architectural and interior coatings, which are key markets for MMA and epoxy resins.
A strong boost to demand will be needed for prices on epoxy and MMA to increase, which producers say is necessary because their margins have been eroded in the fourth quarter of 2012.
"The cost picture continues to weaken," an epoxy resins producer said. "Our margins are effectively zero."
Margin pressure is more of a concern for the epoxy resins market than the MMA market, mostly because of benzene.
With US benzene contract prices at record highs, the feedstock pressure on epoxy resins is immense. However, continued competition from overseas producers and importers has weakened efforts of US producers to raise prices.
"If US producers go through with big increases in January, the overseas guys will stay steady or go up just slightly," a trader said. "They'll be happy to gain more market share."
Epoxy resins buyers agreed, adding that they will look to keep imported material steady relative to their current purchasing portfolios.
Import supply issues are not expected to pose a challenge, with upstream phenol-acetone capacity increasing in Asia and strong demand in the US keeping Asian epoxy resins operating rates high enough to export material.
The record-high benzene costs will also affect MMA through its key feedstock, acetone.
With benzene prices high, production of acetone and its co-product, phenol, is expected to remain low.
The low production rates will keep phenol supply balanced but are expected to make acetone supply tight. Tight acetone supply is expected to push contract prices higher for even the largest customers, MMA producers.
"It doesn't make sense for the US to have the tightest market and the cheapest prices," an acetone producer said. "If we had material we'd rather export it than sell it domestically."
Sources in the MMA market said they expect higher prices in 2013 based on the acetone rise.
In November and December, US MMA producers nominated cumulative price increases of 4 cents/lb ($88/tonne, €67/tonne), 9 cents/lb and 10 cents/lb, respectively.
However, US contract prices increased by 3.5-4.0 cents/lb during those two months, sources said.
"I think pent-up price increase nominations from previous months will be implemented in January," an MMA producer said. "Producers can't continue to eat cost increases."
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