16 January 2013 17:24 [Source: ICIS news]
LONDON (ICIS)--Global energy demand is to increase by 36% from 2011 to 2030, with the overwhelming majority of that growth to come from emerging markets, UK-headquartered oil and gas major BP said on Wednesday.
According to BP’s World Energy Outlook 2030 report, launched in London, 93% of all energy consumption growth up to 2030 will come from non-OECD countries, at a forecast expansion rate of 2.5%/year. OECD energy consumption will expand by 6% during the period, representing a per capita decline of 0.2%/year between 2011 and 2030, as a result of increasing energy efficiency, BP said.
The report also suggests 25% of total worldwide energy growth during the period will come from industrial growth, a 31% expansion from current consumption levels.
The fastest-growing fuels are likely to be renewable, production levels of which are expected to grow by 7.6%/year up to 2030. However, renewables are growing from a comparatively small base, and fossil fuels are still expected to comprise around 80% of total fuel usage in 2030, BP added.
A key disruptive factor in the global energy mix over the period is the emergence of unconventional fuel sources such as tight oil and shale gas, production rates of which are expected to grow more than six-fold and more than treble respectively to account for around a fifth of the increase in global energy supply to 2030, the company said.
Tight oil and shale gas are also likely to leave the US on the verge of total energy independence by 2030, while regulatory and extraction issues in Europe mean that the region is unlikely to reach full-scale shale production levels before 2030, according to BP.
“We expect that the shale revolution will make the US close to energy independent by 2030, while China and India will become more import dependent,” said BP group CEO Bob Dudley at the report launch.
BP chief economist Christof Ruhl added: “No other country outside the US and Canada has yet succeeded in combining these factors to support production growth. While we expect other regions will adapt over time to develop their resources, by 2030 we expect North America still to dominate production of these resources.”
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