IEA cuts 2013 oil demand forecast by 90,000 bbl/day on weak economy

13 February 2013 11:18  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS)--The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday cut its forecast global oil demand for 2013 by 90,000 bbl/day to 90.7m bbl/day, despite signs of strengthening demand in the US and China, as a result of prevailing headwinds in the global economy.

The France-based organisation cut its estimates of oil demand during the year following the IMF’s decision to reduce its global GDP forecast for the year from 3.6% to 3.5% in January. The IEA had predicted last month that global oil demand would be 90.8m bbl/day in 2013.

Despite the slight reduction on forecast demand, crude futures prices beat nine-month highs in early February as a result of improving US and Chinese economies, strong trading levels and colder temperatures in northern Europe, IEA added. Brent crude was trading at $118.56/bbl at 10:20 GMT on Wednesday.

Global crude supplies fell to 90.8m bbl/day, with non-OPEC production falling 190,000 bbl/day month on month to 54.2m bbl/day. However, non-OPEC production is expected to be up 750,000 bbl/day year on year in the first quarter of 2013, IEA said, and supplies to rise to 54.4m bbl/day in in 2013.

OPEC crude supplies hit 30.34m bbl/day in January, a 12-month low, despite slightly higher output in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC natural gas liquids (NGL) supply is likely to be lower than expected this quarter, due in part to the terrorist attack in Algeria last month, IEA added.

Estimates of global refinery crude runs had been cut to 75.1m bbl/day for the first quarter of 2013, which is still 515,000 bbl/day above the fourth quarter of 2012, IEA said.

“Plant maintenance slashed US runs in January, but Asian runs hit new highs ahead of Chinese maintenance,” the agency added.

By: Tom Brown
+44 208 652 3214

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