Non-OPEC oil supply to grow by 1m bbl/day in 2013 – OPEC

12 March 2013 11:40  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS)--Oil supplies from non-OPEC countries are expected to increase by 1.0m barrels per day (bbl/day) in 2013, due to an uptick in estimates for North America, Mexico, Syria and the Sudans, OPEC said on Tuesday.

The figure is an increase from 0.6m bbl/day in 2012 and represents a forecast increase of 0.1m bbl/day from the Austria-headquartered trade bloc’s February report.

OPEC’s world oil demand growth forecast remains at 800,000 bbl/day, with growth primarily coming from China, as well as the Middle East, Latin America and the rest of Asia.

World economic growth this year is estimated at 3.2% and 3.0% in 2012, unchanged from previous reports, the group said.

OPEC said: “A tender recovery in the global economy has been visible lately, but many mostly fiscal issues could impact growth in either direction over the coming months.”

The US’ growth forecast was revised up to 1.8% from 1.7% the previous month as a result of implemented budget cuts, OPEC said, while the eurozone economy is now expected to contract by 0.2% this year, a bleaker prognosis than earlier forecasts of 0.1% growth.

China’s economy is expected to expand by 8.1% this year, buoyed by rebounding global trade, while India’s growth forecast has been revised down by 0.1% to 6.0%. The slightly weaker anticipated growth is still an improvement on the country’s 5.0% GDP growth in 2012, OPEC added.

The eurozone economy remains extremely fragile, and could easily slide back into crisis in the event of political upheaval, OPEC said.

“The Italian elections were certainly the latest act in the eurozone drama, which made clear that due to the fragile political situation in some of the member states a change in policy could easily lead to the re-emergence of the previous year’s sovereign debt challenges,” noted OPEC.

OPEC’s total crude oil production increased by 74,000 bbl/day in February to 30.31m bbl/day, while non-gas liquids (NGLs) and unconventional oil production for the bloc is expected to average 6.0m bbl/day, an increase of 0.2m bbl/day from the previous year.

By: Tom Brown
+44 208 652 3214

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