US natgas vehicles penetration can rise 3-20% by 2020 - consultant

19 March 2013 21:51  [Source: ICIS news]

SAN ANTONIO, Texas (ICIS)--Total US consumption of natural gas fuel in vehicles could increase by 3% in 2020 if current trends remain steady, but it has the potential to rise by up to 20% if certain scenarios improve, a consultant said on Tuesday.

“Natural gas vehicles are early in the adoption curve and will grow rapidly,” said Tim Fitzgibbon, a consultant with McKinsey & Co.

“However, penetration in a conditioned scenario [can be] much higher,” he said during the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturer (AFPM) annual meeting.

Total US consumption of natural gas fuels reached 865m gal/day in 2010.

Of that amount, non-fleet demand totalled 615m gal/day.

By 2020, that number could stay the same under the “business-as-usual” scenario or up to 5% on the high end.

In 2010, inter-city fleet demand reached 164m gal/day, while intra-city fleet totalled only 22m gal/day.

Both sectors could increase by 10% if current trends remain steady, Fitzgibbon said.

However, encouraging change in the industry could cause inter-city and intra-city fleet usage to spike by 50% and 40%, respectively, by 2020, he said.

The AFPM annual meeting ends on Tuesday.

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By: Tracy Dang
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