Raiffeisen questions chances of H2 eurozone economic recovery

19 April 2013 14:52  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS)--The results of eurozone economic surveys will have to substantially pick up in the months ahead for there to be any serious prospect of a second-half economic recovery within the euro area, Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) said on Friday.

“An economic recovery within the eurozone in the second half of the year is most certainly not off the table, but the surveys will have to improve greatly in the coming months for there to be any realistic chance,” analysts Eva Bauer and Gottfried Steindl, of Austria-based RBI unit Raiffeisen Research, wrote in a note to investors.

“Doubts over the hoped-for turnaround in the course of the year are not being prodded along by the classic crisis countries, though, but rather by second-tier 'core countries' like France and Belgium as well as the Netherlands,” they added.

The real economy data for the eurozone that has thus far been published – on industrial and construction output, retail sales, exports and new car registrations – is pointing towards another quarter-on-quarter drop in eurozone GDP in the first quarter of this year and in the face of weak economic surveys, “it is of little surprise that the unease on financial markets has begun to rise with regard to the economic outlook,” the analysts added.

Purchasing manager indexes (PMIs) fell across all the eurozone countries in March, they added.

“When one looks at surveys that are closer to manufacturing activity in cyclically sensitive sectors, the picture looks quite disappointing as the numbers here, too, have fallen since the start of the year,” they said.

By: Will Conroy
+44 20 8652 3214

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