OPEC revises down Q1 world oil demand growth

11 June 2013 11:40  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS)--OPEC on Tuesday revised down its forecast for world oil demand growth in the first quarter of 2013 by around 144,000 bbl/day, compared with its previous monthly oil market report.

First-quarter demand growth now sits at 700,000 bbl/day to average 88.8m bbl/day.

OPEC said the bulk of the revision came from the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) region where demand was revised down by 136,000 bbl/day.

A downward adjustment in OECD Europe and OECD Asia-Pacific, where demand was adjusted lower by 150,000 bbl/day and 50,000 bbl/day, respectively, more than offset an upward revision of 64,000 bbl/day in demand growth for OECD America, it added.

Non-OECD demand saw a small downward revision of around 8,000 bbl/day in the first quarter, entirely due to a fall in Latin America.

OPEC added that global oil consumption is likely to continue to slow in the second quarter, given the weakening of the world economy.

However, it said demand growth should increase in the final two quarters, "driven by structural changes in the seasonal pattern". Projected oil demand growth is estimated to slip to 0.7% year on year in the second quarter before rebounding to 1.0% in the third and 0.9% in the fourth, OPEC said.

As a result world oil demand is expected to increase by 800,000 bbl/day for the whole of 2013, averaging 89.6m bbl/day, in line with the growth seen last year and unchanged from the previous report. Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is forecast at 29.8m bbl/day, unchanged from the previous report.

OPEC’s June monthly oil market report also kept non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2013 unchanged from the last report at a projected 1.0m bbl/day in 2013, supported by strong anticipated growth from the US.

By: Franco Capaldo
+44 (0)20 8652 3214

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