IEA estimates global supply in July increased by 575,000 bbl/day

09 August 2013 10:56  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS)--Global oil supply in July is estimated to have increased by 575,000 bbl/day month on month to 91.85m bbl/day, led by higher non-OPEC production, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

It added in its latest monthly oil report that increased non-OPEC output was only partially offset by reduced OPEC crude production.

Year on year, supplies were up by 785,000 bbl/day, with a rise in non-OPEC output and OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) of 1.84m bbl/day eclipsing a decline of just over 1.1m bbl/day in OPEC crude production, the IEA said.

“Non-OPEC supplies rose by 570,000 bbl/day in July to 54.9m bbl/day, with North America providing around 40% of the growth. Canada, rather than the US, was responsible for most of this increase,” the IEA said.

“OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] Europe also rose strongly in July, by nearly 170,000 bbl/day, though this was mostly the result of a lull in North Sea maintenance, where a sharp decline is forecast for August as work resumes,” it added.

The IEA said smaller gains in the OECD Pacific region and non-OPEC Africa contributed most of the balance of growth, while some large producers experienced declines, including Russia.

Global oil demand growth is expected to accelerate in 2014 to 1.1m bbl/day, compared with 900,000 bbl/day in 2013. The IEA’s forecast of demand growth for 2014 has been trimmed by 100,000 bbl/day from last month's report on reduced GDP expectations from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while that for 2013 is largely unchanged.

“Projections of global oil demand growth for 2013 and 2014 have been trimmed slightly following lower macroeconomic forecasts released by the IMF in July,” the IEA said.

“The 2013 growth forecast has been marginally reduced by 30,000 bbl/day to 895,000 bbl/day, as the assumed pace of global GDP growth eases back to 3.1% from the IMF’s April 3.3% forecast. Although oil demand growth remains forecast to pick up pace in 2014, the growth projection for that year has been cut to 1.1m bbl/day, from 1.2m bbl/day,” it added.

The oil market report also said that global refinery crude demand surged by 3.1m bbl/day in June, its highest monthly increase on record, and likely rose further in July, ahead of autumn maintenance.

“At 77.2m bbl/day, June runs were almost 2.0m bbl/day above year-earlier levels. Global runs were pegged at 74.8m bbl/day for 2Q13, rising to 77.3m bbl/day in 3Q13,” the IEA said.

By: Franco Capaldo
+44 (0)20 8652 3214

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