OPEC revises up 2013 global oil demand growth, 2014 unchanged

09 August 2013 11:30  [Source: ICIS news]

OPEC revises oil demand forecastLONDON (ICIS)--Global oil demand will grow at a higher-than-previously forecast rate this year based on stronger first-half data and an expected  increase in demand for transport fuel, OPEC said in its latest monthly report on Friday.

The oil cartel revised 2013 world oil demand growth up by a marginal 17,000 bbl/day from its previous report to 800,000 bbl/day, based on “actual and preliminary data for the first half of the year.”

“These revisions reflect the improvement in oil demand observed in June 2013, especially in the UK, and an expected increase in transportation fuel demand,” OPEC said.

The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2014 was unchanged, at 1.04m bbl/day.

On the supply side, non-OPEC production is expected to rise by 1.0m bbl/day this year, an upward revision mainly due to historical adjustments as well as higher-than-expected US output.

In 2014, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 1.1m bbl/day, supported by projected increases in the US, Canada, Brazil, the Sudans, and Kazakhstan, the report said.

OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) and nonconventional oils are projected to increase by 200,000 bbl/day this year and 100,000 bbl/day in 2014.

In July, total OPEC crude oil output averaged 30.31m bbl/day, a fall of 100,000 bbl/day from the previous month.

Demand for OPEC crude this year is forecast to average 29.9m bbl/day, while 2014 demand is predicted to be 29.7m bbl/day.

OPEC revised down 2013 world economic growth to 2.9% from 3.0%, mainly due to lower Q1 GDP growth estimates for the US as well as the slowdown in China’s economy. The 2014 global growth forecast was unchanged at 3.5%.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) also released its monthly oil report on Friday, which highlighted a global supply increase in July, led by higher non-OPEC production.

By: Graeme Paterson
+44 20 8652 3214

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