OPEC raises 2013 world oil demand growth forecast

12 November 2013 11:40  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS)--OPEC on Tuesday in its latest monthly oil report for November revised its world oil demand growth forecast for 2013 up by 34,000 bbl/day from last month’s report to 860,000 bbl/day.

This revision was a reflection of actual and preliminary data for the first half of the year becoming available, generally coming from all organisation for economic co-operation and development (OECD) regions, as well as some non-OECD countries, particularly in Africa.

“Recent data implied some upward adjustment to 2013 world oil demand. Most of this improvement is yet again prevailing from the OECD countries, with a total upward revision of around 40,000 bbl/day spread between OECD America and OECD Europe,” OPEC said.

“In contrast, the non-OECD region experienced a minor decline of 10,000 bbl/day due to adjustments to some African countries,” it added.

World oil demand now is estimated to average around 89.78m bbl/day in 2013, up by around 1.0% compared to 2012.

For 2014, demand is expected to increase by around 1.04m bbl/day, or 1.2%, compared with 2013, with total world oil demand expected to reach 90.78m bbl/day.

Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is estimated to average 29.9m bbl/day, unchanged from the previous report, representing a decline of 600,000 bbl/day from last year. The forecast for 2014 was also unchanged at 29.6 bbl/day, a decline of 300,000 bbl/day compared with this year.

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2013 is expected to increase by 1.18m bbl/day in 2013 to average 54.10m bbl/day, representing an upward revision of 35,000 bbl/day from the previous report.

OPEC said the supply profiles of the US, Canada, the UK, other western Europe, Russia and Azerbaijan were revised up, while downward revisions were made to Brunei, Yemen, South Sudan, Sudan and Kazakhstan’s supply projections.

“The upward revisions were larger than the downward adjustments, resulting in the overall increase in the non-OPEC supply forecast for 2013,” it said.

“Non-OPEC oil production is expected to increase by 1.20m bbl/day to average 55.30m bbl/day in 2014. The absolute level was revised up by 30,000 bbl/day, due mainly to historical revisions undertaken in 2012 and 2013, while expected growth was revised down by 10,000 bbl/day,” OPEC added.


By: Franco Capaldo
+44 (0)20 8652 3214



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