OPEC revises up 2014 OECD economic growth, global oil demand

12 February 2014 12:53  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS)--OPEC has revised its estimates for global oil demand in 2014 upwards, partially on the back of improving economic growth forecasts for Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) bloc countries this year, the Austria-headquartered oil cartel said on Wednesday.

World oil demand was revised up by 50,000 bbl/day compared to estimates made in January, to around 1.1m bbl/day, driven by an 0.1 percentage point improvement in its total GDP growth forecast for the OECD, to 2.0%.

Global economic growth forecasts remained at 3.5%, despite a 0.1 percentage point revision downwards for China to 7.7%, the same level seen last year.

The organisation also revised earlier estimates for 2013 total oil demand up by 30,000 bbl/day based on stronger economic conditions in European and American OECD bloc countries.

OPEC also increased its estimate of total oil output growth from non-OPEC countries to 1.29m bbl/day in 2014 despite projected declines for several producers, to an average of 55.43m bbl/day.

Growth [is expected] mainly in the US, Canada, and Brazil, while Norway, UK and Mexico are seen declining,” the organisation said.

OPEC bloc natural gas liquids (NGLs) and con-conventional oils production in 2014 is estimated at 5.95m bbl/day compared to 5.80m bbl/day in 2013, with projections holding steady from the previous month’s report.

OPEC crude oil production stood at 29.71m bbl/day in January, a 28,000 bbl/day month on month rise, with output increases in Libya offsetting production falls in other member countries.

OPEC noted that, while demand levels are expected to improve year on year in 2014, demand growth is being capped to an extent by government policies focusing on fuel efficiency.

“Demand growth could be capped by implementation of government policies that seek to not only increase efficiency for oil usage, but also encourage a shift away from oil to alternative fuels in a number of sectors, including transportation,” the group said.

“World oil demand in 2014 is projected to see some improvement, but will remain below potential growth, as rising economic activities counterbalance the decline in oil intensity,” it concluded.

By: Tom Brown
+44 208 652 3214

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