14 April 2014 16:08 [Source: ICIS news]
LONDON (ICIS)--An ongoing drought in Turkey means the record fertilizer consumption which the country saw last year will not be matched or exceeded in 2014, a bank said on Monday.
Turkey’s fertilizer consumption rose to a record 5.8m tonnes in 2013 from 5.3m tonnes in 2012, but would likely decline to 5.5m this year, Erste Group Bank said.
“In the short term, we think the drought will be the main risk [to consumption],” said an Istanbul-based Erste analyst Evrim Dairecioglu, while noting that falling GDP growth was another difficulty.
“Turkey’s central regions suffered from the drought in 2013 and our forecasts imply that the drought will continue in 2014 [and] in that sense, we expect a decline in fertilizer consumption as a result of the lower purchasing power of farmers,” he added.
Turkey’s annual fertilizer consumption was around 5m tonne in periods when the economy is growing but Erste saw limited room for growth due to inherent structural problems in the agriculture industry, including a lack of arable land, the analyst said.
“We are maintaining our mid-term per hectare consumption target of 105 kg, which is equivalent to nearly 5.5m tonnes/year because of the limited arable land growth,” Dairecioglu added.
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