18 August 2014 00:00 [Source: ICB]
■ US spot prices have started to rebound on sentiment that the market has hit its floor.
■ US RGP/PGP spread has been wider than normal on softer RGP.
■ US supply remains tight until the wave of PDH units hits in 2015 and beyond.
■ Europe supply should improve in H2 on a major outage in downstream PO.
■ Increased Asia supply could lead to less demand for exports from Europe.
■ Europe material and derivatives could become the most expensive.
■ Asia supply to rise, especially in China, from new PDH units using propane feedstock. This is likely to hurt margins, even as feedstock costs fall.
■ Asia demand should improve, which will likely absorb some new capacity.
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