World energy use to jump 50% by 2030 - US

25 June 2008 17:39  [Source: ICIS news]

WASHINGTON (ICIS news)--Global energy consumption will increase by 50% by 2030 on growth in developing countries but oil prices will moderate from current record highs as consumers shift to alternatives, the top US energy analysis agency said on Wednesday.

 

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its annual International Energy Outlook that the “vast share” of that 50% increase in worldwide energy use will be due to economic and population growth in developing countries such as China, India, Brazil and to some extent in the Middle East.

 

“The most important element in our international energy outlook is the growth in developing countries,” said administration director Guy Caruso.

 

By 2030, those fast-developing nations will be consuming 40% more energy than the 30 member states of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which includes the Western industrialised nations plus Japan and South Korea.

 

To meet that growth in demand in part, Caruso said that global oil production will increase from 84.3m bbl/day in 2005 to 112.5m bbl/day by 2030. Oil consumption grows from 83.6m bbl/day in 2005 to 112.5m bbl/day in 2030.

 

Over that 25-year period of growth, the supply/demand balance for oil will remain relatively tight, Caruso said.  Despite that tight balance, he said the world price for oil is likely to moderate from current highs, declining to around $70/bbl in nominal terms by 2015 followed by a steady increase to $113/bbl in 2030.

 

Recognizing that current oil prices are already well above those projections, Caruso said that demand destruction, changes in consumer behaviour and increased oil production will come to bear on prices.

 

“We do think that consumer responses will begin to emerge over the next couple of years,” Caruso said, noting that “we’re already beginning to see some of that in US driving habits with gasoline at $4 a gallon.”

 

“High oil prices do make a difference, not only in use patterns but also in the development of alternative fuels, including renewables, and increases in production,” he said.

 

“We believe that the next ten to 15 years will bring on new supplies among OPEC and non-OPEC producing countries, and that along with use changes will moderate prices,” Caruso said.

 

“Of course, we’re never going to go back to $20 oil, but the price will moderate from today’s highs,” he said.

 

($1 = €0.64)

 

To discuss issues facing the chemical industry go to ICIS connect

ICIS Copyright © Reed Business Information 2009

Author: Joe Kamalick
+1 713 525 2653

< previous article(ICIS Chemical Business podcast November 2, 2009)

For the latest chemical news, data and analysis that directly impacts your business sign up for a free trial to ICIS news - the breaking online news service for the global chemical industry.

Get the facts and analysis behind the headlines from our market leading weekly magazine: sign up to a free trial to ICIS Chemical Business.