Archive | May, 2007

No more pessimism for a couple of weeks

You maybe relieved, on the day the Chinese government introduces measures to cool stock markets resulting in sharp fall in the Shanghai Exchange, that I am going on leave for a couple of weeks.
Perhaps I’ll feel the sun on …

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Another Asian Financial Crisis, this time triggered by China?

After yesterday’s optimism, yet more pessimism. I remember 1997. Don’t underestimate the dange of contagion if China’s stock market bubble does burst – as the likes of Alan Greenspan are predicting

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Is this the death of cycles?

Quite possibly, yes, despite my instinctiive pessimism. Perhaps emerging markets such as China and India have reached such a critical mass that no matter how much capacity is brought on stream, it will be easily absorbed.
Or maybe some disaster …

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Life gets more complicated in the Middle East

In the old days all you had to do was propose an ethane cracker with PE and MEG downstream and you were away.
But these days if you want to get feedstock, especially in Saudi, you need to offer something …

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Watch out for the Black Swans and dump the consultants

The former trader turned professor, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his new book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable warns against the danger of forecasting. Forecasting is, obviously, always based on what he know and not what we …

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Capacity build-up to force volumes west…even from Asia?

There’s been a lot of talk about the next wave of Middle East capacity being too great for Asia to absorb all the Asian volumes. Indeed, estimates abound over western growth being satisfied by the M-E over the next 3-5 …

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Bad news for polyvinyl chloride?

And also a whole host of other chemicals if this article on the excellent All Roads Lead to China blog is correct and incentives that have encouraged the real estate boom are removed.
This serves of the dangers of overheating. …

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