Archive | April, 2009

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It really is a Mad World

As the potential swine flu pandemi threatens more lives – and even more damage to the global economy – it’s time to watch American Idol re-runs.

It would be great if we could all collectively retire to some paradise island …

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Is it better to be right for not quite……

……all the right reasons than to be wrong altogether?

Sounds a dumb question, perhaps – unless you take particular pride in being one of those know-it-alls.

The point I am trying to make (and assuming that chemicals pricing doesn’t collapse …

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Is China repeating the mistakes of the US?

My current favourite blogger is Michael Pettis, professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, who, in his latest post, makes a very worrying point below.

As an aside, and without wanting to take the 1930s analogy too far, this …

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It’s getting darker and darker out there

It would be nice to start the weekend with a little cheer, but I’m afraid no amount of gormless optimism would work.

DuPont, as you can see from this excellent piece from my colleague Nigel Davis at ICIS, has revised …

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China’s economy: A case of wishful thinking?

Could the chemicals industry be in danger of wanting to believe something so much that ignores overwhelming evidence to the contrary?

The widespread perception is that China’s economy has reached a turning point.

“The worst of the crisis is over …

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Do you need a Joseph Kennedy moment?

Referring to the famous story about how Joseph Kennedy sold his shares on the eve of the Wall Street Crash after being given investment tips by a shoe-shine boy, my answer to the above is a definitive YES.

Over the …

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The China Recovery Conundrum

Good news, bad or indifferent? It was hard to gauge a clear picture from the Q1 macroeconomic numbers for China.

While retail sales grew at 14.7% in March compared with 11.5% in February, exports fell 20% during the first quarter.…

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China polyolefin speculation gets worse

See the piece below.

I suspect polyolefin pricing will fall a lot further:

A Singapore-based polyolefin trader took a telephone call during a lunch meeting a few weeks ago from his counterpart on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE).

“Sell, sell, …

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Some important new petchem trends

To keep you updated on what we believe is happening in petrochemicals, here are some important recent trends:

*Futures markets in China are playing an increasingly important role in influencing pricing in polyolefins, methanol and PTA. Trading volume on the …

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Asian petchems: A H2 Outlook

Petrochemical markets, as is the case with stock markets, are I believe in the midst of a bear-market rally.

As chemicals consultant Paul Hodges predicted on his blog last year, restocking in Q1 was inevitable after the great inventory run-down …

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