Archive | July, 2009


China inventory sentiment survey

Peering through the fog

On the theme of data again, in the ideal world it might be possible to send thousands of hardworking foot solders out into the field in China to chase down every warehouse of polymers and count …

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Lies, damned lies and data

“Excuse me, are you sure about that?”

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A wise man said to me recently: “All data is wrong; all you can do is make sure you are consistently wrong”.

Now this is absolutely not meant to …

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Asia anxious over the wrong kind growth

Like this for a while longer?

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The question, of course, is what is the right kind of growth?

If you are trader of whatever kind the only growth you care about is in aset values. In …

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China polyethylene inventories are high




A Mars Bar feast in store if crude hits $30/bbl again

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Polyethylene (PE) inventories in China at the second and third local distributor levels are at very high levels, two …

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Will Fiscal Rebalancing Trigger A Trade War?

Ron Kirk faces a tough balancing act

Source of Picture: United States Mission – Geneva

“The rebuilt American economy must be export-oriented and less consumption-oriented,” said Larry Summers, Director of the US President’s National Economic Council, earlier this month.

But, …

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Is Dalian setting the markets?

Make your own mind up about the role of the Dalian Commodity Exchange linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) futures contracts from the interviews below.The first quote is from Sinopec – from an ICIS news story.

There then …

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pete seeger and friends.jpg

Where Have All The Flowers/Polymers Gone?

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Peter Seeger’s most-famous song (being performed here by Pete, Bob Dylan, Judy Collins and Arlo Guthrie) was “Where Have All The Flowers Gone?”

Perhaps a new version should be cut entitled, “Where Have All The Polymers …

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The insidious rise of the Internet….

“Bob, I think I we should give this up as I can’t get a wireless connection and I couldn’t be bothered to talk to anyone.”
Source of Picture: Faculty.SMU.Edu

……and the effect on the quality of data and analysis …

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China’s Great Property Gamble

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Perhaps this post will help explain why a perplexed Hong Kong-based financial analyst wrote to me the other day, in response to my probably failed efforts to adequately explain rising chemicals demand in China:

“I stilll …

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Credit Expansion Linked To Dalian Boom?

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We have just started doing our research and so more details later – but see attached this Excel spreadsheet –

It compares the increase in lending from China’s banks with the amount of open interest …

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