Help Us Answer Some Very Important Questions

ACCChinaDebt18June2014

 

Sometimes two  graphs can be worth a thousand words.

IF the world economy is well and truly on the right course then why is that global chemicals operating rates have yet to return to their pre-crisis levels? (see the top chart from the American Chemistry Council). This is a very long downturn by historic standards – six years, in fact.

Could it be that demand cannot return to  its pre-crisis levels until the West addresses its demographic challenges?

And here is a another question for you. Why do people think that China will inevitably avoid a debt-driven economic crisis, or at the very least a very sharp correction in growth when the second chart shown above, from this article in the FT , suggests otherwise? Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all had lower increases in debt as a percentage of GDP compared with China and yet still suffered sharp economic correction. What makes China so special?

Answers please, to this email address – john.richardson@icis.com. We promise to publish all responses that are legal, decent and make sense.

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