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Just “Black Swans” That We Can’t Predict? Nonsense

By John Richardson

HERE is a list of just a few recent what were are told were “Black Swan” events:…

The Lehman Bros-triggered global financial crisis.
China’s 2008-2013 economic stimulus package.
Last year’s collapse in oil prices.
China’s economic and

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Do Business On China’s Terms Or Do No Business At All

By John Richardson

THE above slide summarises where I think the future opportunities will lie for overseas polyolefins producers in the key China market.  This is taken from my  recent speech at the ICIS 4th World Polyolefins  Conference in Amsterdam.…

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China: Prepare For An “Industrial Shakeout” Later This Year

By John Richardson

HERE is some good news to start the week: The latest Bank of England “stress test” for UK banks includes this scenario for China:…

China’s real GDP growth falls to just 1.7% in Q4 of this year.

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IMF New Study Highlights Critical Role Of Demographics

By John Richardson

IT is fantastic news that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted ageing populations as a major drag on global growth in its latest World Economic Outlook update.

The IMF warns that employment growth will decline in …

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Petrochemicals And The End Of The Commodities Supercyle

By John Richardson

YESTERDAY I suggested that a “permanent study group” should be established by the US petrochemicals industry, and very probably industries in other regions, that would focus solely on all the evolving implications of the New Normal.

So …

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US Needs A New Normal “Permanent Study Group”

By John Richardson

A LOT of the discussions taking place in and around last week’s American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers International Petrochemical Conference (IPC) in San Antonio, Texas, was, of course, around oil prices.

Lower crude prices means less of …

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China: Time To Stop Using The 18th Century Spinning Loom

By John Richardson

FOR a long while now I have been arguing that China will do “much, much more with much less”. Four years ago, when Paul Hodges and I first outlined the concept of the New Normal, we highlighted …

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China’s Leaders Imbued With An “Iron Will”

By John Richardson

BEFORE you can start dealing with a problem, you obviously have to acknowledge that there is a problem in the first place.

So, over the last few days, I have been heartened by a change in tone …

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Oil Price Chaos: What It Means For The Planning Process

By John Richardson

FIRST of all, we were told that $100 a barrel, or thereabouts, was the natural price for oil.

And then we were told this after the price collapse: “Not to worry, this is just a temporary supply …

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US Petchems: Victim Of A Black Swan? What Black Swan?

 

By John Richardson

JIM Gallogly, the former CEO of LyondellBasell, has advised US petrochemicals companies to “think very, very hard” about new investments.

“Some of you simply are going to be too late. And you need to recognise where …

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