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Russian Sanctions Too Little, Too Late

By John Richardson

“A common orthodoxy in Western thought – the notion of  a globalising world in which greater prosperity was ultimately analogous to stability – has  been again thrown into contention,” wrote the Financial Times, in an article worth …

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China Will Not Shut Down. It Will Instead Run Harder.

By John Richardson

EVERY $10 decline in the iron ore price knocks more than $2bn off the annual revenues of Vale,  Rio Tinto and BHP Billion and around $250m from those of Anglo American.

We can see a similar dynamic …

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China’s Polyester Crisis: The Global Implications

By John Richardson

EVERYWHERE you turn it looks bad in China, especially in the polyester value chain.

“So has it always been in polyester. Because of its ownership structure, capacities up and down the chain are often out of sync,” …

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China Exceeds US 20th Century Cement Output In Just Two Years

By John Richardson

CHINA produced more cement in 2011 and 2012 than the US produced in the whole of the 20th century. Yes, that’s right, China produced more cement in just two years than the States produced in 100 years.…

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China Polyethylene: Fitting 11% Into 6%

By John Richardson

ELEVEN per cent apparent demand growth in polyethylene (PE) in China will not go into estimates of real demand growth at no more than 6%.

This is our concern based on the latest set of data on …

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Finding A Home For US Polyethylene Expansions

By John Richardson

EVEN if you take a benign view of the future of the US economy (which, separately, we think is the wrong view), the planned increases in US polyethylene (PE) capacity still raise this very important question: Where …

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China: “The Dog Ate My Homework” Won’t Do

By John Richardson

TWO Chinese plastic processing companies are in financial difficulties because they have used raw-material purchases for speculation, a polyolefins industry source told the blog.

“The companies are in trouble because they resold their inventories in order to …

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China’s Economic Transformation: Free Webinar

Last May’s China Transformation webinar with Paul Hodges attracted great interest.  We are therefore holding s free follow-up webinar on Tuesday 9 September.  As before, it will be run twice, to allow blog readers in different regions to attend.

This …

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China, The US Stock Market And Overvaluation

By John Richardson

THE US economist, Robert Shiller, has a very good track record in identifying  when bubbles have become inflated. For example, as early as 2003, he foresaw the dangers of the US housing bubble.

And so the blog …

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China And Starting From Entirely The Wrong Position

By John Richardson

THE majority of  people analysing data on China’s economy are still getting it wrong.

They think that the worst the numbers get, the more likely it is that the government will panic. Predictions are widespread, therefore, of  …

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