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Iron Ore and Petrochemicals Share The Same Delusions

By John Richardson

BACK in January we wrote:  “As China’s investment growth model is unwound – for economic as well as social reasons –  iron ore prices [will] decline significantly, leading to the failure of the smaller mining companies and …

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China’s Real Growth Could Be Weakest Since 1995

By John Richardson

WE all should know that China’s published GDP figures are meaningless as, of course, China’s premier Li Keqiang has told us so.

But the trouble is that so many analysts continue to talk about another burst of …

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China Transformation Webinar Tomorrow

By John Richardson

EVERYWHERE you look is the same,  according to the Asia ICIS pricing reports for the week ending 5 September. For example:…

Purified terephthalic acid operating rates were just 52-53% at the end of last week, down from

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Asia Chemicals Will Need To Cut Operating Rates

By John Richardson

THE above chart, from Paul Satchell’s latest Volume Proxy*, indicates that the downturn in Asian chemicals markets has become more entrenched.

“The continued decline in the Asia line lends further support to our earlier assertion that the …

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Shanghai And The Real Pessimists

By John Richardson

THE blog is used to being told “you are too pessimistic on China”, and is used to ignoring such comments, because they miss the point about what we have long being trying to convey. We challenge anybody …

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Poorandageing

China Deals With Demographics In The Right Way

CHINA’S approach to its challenging demographics are in complete contrast to the Russian approach, which we outlined yesterday.

In the case of China, its strategy involves:…

Providing manufacturers with strong incentives to relocate from high labour cost coastal provinces to

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Russian Sanctions Too Little, Too Late

By John Richardson

“A common orthodoxy in Western thought – the notion of  a globalising world in which greater prosperity was ultimately analogous to stability – has  been again thrown into contention,” wrote the Financial Times, in an article worth …

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China Will Not Shut Down. It Will Instead Run Harder.

By John Richardson

EVERY $10 decline in the iron ore price knocks more than $2bn off the annual revenues of Vale,  Rio Tinto and BHP Billion and around $250m from those of Anglo American.

We can see a similar dynamic …

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China’s Polyester Crisis: The Global Implications

By John Richardson

EVERYWHERE you turn it looks bad in China, especially in the polyester value chain.

“So has it always been in polyester. Because of its ownership structure, capacities up and down the chain are often out of sync,” …

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China Exceeds US 20th Century Cement Output In Just Two Years

By John Richardson

CHINA produced more cement in 2011 and 2012 than the US produced in the whole of the 20th century. Yes, that’s right, China produced more cement in just two years than the States produced in 100 years.…

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