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Brexit: Global Short And Long Term Implications

By John Richardson

IT IS clear that the Remain campaigners were not exaggerating the short term impact of a successful Leave vote during the EU referendum campaign. They have instead very probably underestimated the immediate effect on the UK and …

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Brexit The Result Of Diminished Economic Opportunities

By John Richardson

THE above diagram is just a sample of the complexity facing Britain, the rest of the EU and the global economy following last Thursday’s victory by the Leave campaign.

And once you have studied the Credit Suisse …

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Brexit, Other Uncertainties Undermine Seasonal Pricing Confidence

By John Richardson

FOR many, many years, seasonality has been a great guide to short term pricing patterns in Asian chemicals and polymer markets.

Take high-density polyethylene (HDPE) injection grade as just one example, which is used to make a …

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China Reformers Regain The Upper Hand

By John Richardson

THE above chart indicates that the reformers have regained influence in China:…

Whilst new loans from state-owned banks in May beat analysts’ expectations by a big distance, total social financing (TSF), which is the measure of all

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German Bond Yields Go Negative On End Of Economic Supercycle

By John Richardson

OIL markets remain fundamentally long. There is little to support the notion that the recent price rally has anything to do with anything but confidence that US interest rates will be lower for longer than had been …

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Trade Rhetoric Worsens As China Becomes Net PTA Exporter

By John Richardson

TIME Magazine made the “Chinese Worker” runner-up in its 2009 Person of the Year contest (by the way the winner was Ben Bernanke, the then chairman of the US Federal Reserve).

It was the hard graft of …

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Emerging Markets: 67.7 More Years To Catch Up With US

By John Richardson

IF I had a dollar in my pocket for every time I had read or heard the phrase “the rise of the middle classes in the emerging markets” in the context that this was a tremendous opportunity …

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China PP Import Decline Challenges Global Markets

By John Richardson

THE latest data on China’s polypropylene (PP) imports should set alarm bells ringing in polyolefin company board rooms:…

China’s PP production was up by 14% in January-April 2016 versus the same four months last year, with imports

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“Out Of The Box” Solutions Can Prevent Global Trade Tensions

By John Richardson

IF you are a politician in the West, one approach to today’s crisis of global industrial overcapacity is heap most of the blame on China and threaten China with trade barriers. But if China doesn’t respond to …

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Oil Prices: Beware Return Of The Financial Bears

By John Richardson

THE above chart shows the extent to which this year’s oil-price rally has been led by futures markets. What is significant, though, is that futures activity seems to have plateaued.

Sure, futures activity could easily go the …

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