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China: How To Chart The Future

By John Richardson

THE chart below should not be printed out and pinned on any chemicals company boardroom wall. If you accidentally press the “print” button, you must throw the print-out in the bin, without pause, just in case somebody …

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Oil Prices: Ignore Human Nature At Your Peril

By John Richardson

JUST four months after the blog first moved to Asia, we got the shock of our lives: The Asian Financial Crisis.

We were bewildered and didn’t know what to think, but fortunately, perhaps, there wasn’t much of …

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China’s September “Export Boom”. Are You Serious?

By John Richardson

WHEN something seems to be so obviously too good to be true, based on lots of contrary evidence, then it usually is.

And so here’s the thing:…

Nobody should take any serious notice of the 15.3% year-on-year

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China: The Future Winners And Losers

By John Richardson

CONVENTIONAL analysis, which assumes that the world of the last six years will be the world of the next six years, is failing.

One of the most  obvious examples of this is China, where one-dimensional, lack-of-depth conventional …

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Want Oil Prices Back At Above $1OO? Be Careful What You Wish For

By John Richardson

WE worry that quite a few people still don’t get it on crude oil.

Here is why:…

As recently as July, as the chart above from the latest BP Energy Review shows, oil prices were from 2009

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As Easy Money Ends, Time To Unblock The Plughole

By John Richardson

YOU cannot fix a blocked plughole by pouring in more water.

This is the core message of this very important FT Alphaville blog post, which tells us that:…

While Western central banks have done their best to

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Oil Prices at $50 or $150 In 2015? Take Your Pick

By John Richardson

REAL price discovery is finally returning to oil markets after years of incredibly harmful central bank stimulus which put the market largely in the hands of the speculators.

But now actual supply of and demand for oil …

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China’s Bogus Export Boom

By John Richardson

CHINA’S strong export growth in July and August is widely viewed as fantastic compensation for weaker growth at home. It also viewed as a sign that the global economy has perhaps, turned a corner,

But now it …

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Oil Markets: The Failure Of Accepted Wisdom

By John Richardson

THE illusion of a strong global economy has been created by central bank stimulus – via the Fed and, much more importantly, via China.

And the illusion of a strong global economy was  accompanied by the “illusion …

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China: A Deliberate “Snowball Effect”

By John Richardson

EARLIER this week we answered this question – “How bad will it get in China before it gets good?” – in this blog post and a follow-up post that looked at some the immense, long-term uncertainties.

Now …

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