Archive | China RSS feed for this section

Why Oil Prices Could Be At $35/bbl Or Lower By Q4

Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC may regret their decison to cut production, as this has led to a resurgence in US shale-oil production – and a further wave of innovation in shale technologies. Combine this with a slowdown …

Continue Reading

Why The US Will Fail To Reach 3% GDP Growth

By John Richardson

THE WHITE House has to clear two major barriers if it is going get anywhere close to its target of raising US GDP growth to 3% a year. Over the past decade, the economy has grown at …

Continue Reading

China Moves Towards Commodity Grade PE Self-Sufficiency By 2025

By John Richardson

THE argument I’ve been making for a couple of years now is that the history of petrochemicals in China suggests a constant drive towards much greater self-sufficiency. No value chain is immune, I have kept contending.

The …

Continue Reading

Buoyant, Calm Financial Markets Fail to Reflect Growing Risks

By John Richardson

THE Chicago Board Options Exchange’s (CBOE) volatility index fell to its lowest level since 1993 on 8 May.

But we knew then that the China economy was slowing down – and that very probably, the Trump administration …

Continue Reading

China’s Drive To PX Self-Sufficiency Again Shows Failure Of Conventional Thinking

By John Richardson

BACK in November 2014, when I first suggested that China might move to self-sufficiency in paraxylene (PX), my blog post was met with widespread scepticism.

At that time, China was moving from a major import position in …

Continue Reading

China’s Polyethylene Market Faces Long Destocking Process

China’s polyethylene (PE) imports surged and domestic production saw strong growth in Q1. This occurred as the economy slowed down on reduced availability of credit and the pollution clean-up. Even if global  producers saw this coming, they had no other …

Continue Reading

China’s Lock-Step Moves On Credit, Pollution Threaten Global Economy

China’s renewed efforts to tackle excessive lending and pollution are closely linked as progress on deflating the 2016 credit bubble will also see progress towards cleaning-up the environment. This will lead to quite a sharp slowdown in GDP growth during …

Continue Reading

China’s Polypropylene Market Reflects Wider Economic Problems

By John Richardson

WHEN traders acquired big volumes of polypropylene (PP) cargoes to export to China at the end of last year for arrival in Q1, they were confident that the country’s domestic market would easily absorb just about every …

Continue Reading

China To Drive Return To Global Deflation

By John Richardson

THE Wall Street Journal agrees up with my blog: Two months after I warned that a slowdown in lending growth in China was a major threat to the global economy, its 1 May front-page article echoed my …

Continue Reading

China Polyethylene Self-Sufficiency: The Right Questions To Ask

By John Richardson

THERE is a lot of talk right now about now China’s coal-to-olefins (CTO) capacity additions are slowing down on rising concerns over the emissions produced by the technology.

A further factor behind the widespread view that capacity …

Continue Reading