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China To Stop Importing Chemicals As It Exports New Technologies

By John Richardson

LAST Friday I discussed how, even without the impact of demographics on demand, it is mathematically impossible to fit one two billion into two billion.

Now bear with me for a few minutes. The themes I discussed …

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Ageing Populations And Fitting Two Billion Into One Billion

By John Richardson

THE above chart is of absolutely critical importance for anybody who is serious about estimating both the strength and nature of future global demand growth for chemicals.

If you are not a serious analysts then, sure, ignore …

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Oil Price Rally Built On Very Fragile Ground

By John Richardson

OIL prices rallied yesterday on an unexpected fall in inventories at Cushing in the US to 61.7 million barrels for the week ending 24 April (see the above chart). This was a decline of 514,000 barrels over …

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China’s Long, Hard Struggle To Reform Local Govt Financing

By John Richardson

A story that moves financial markets doesn’t have to be true. All that matters is that the narrative convinces enough people for a sufficient period of time to move markets either up or down, thus allowing speculators …

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China 19% PP Production Increase Should Be No Surprise

By John Richardson

THE chart above should come as no surprise whatsoever to anybody in the global polypropylene (PP) business.

Here is why:…

Many of China’s new PP plants are coal-based and so are located in inland provinces where job

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The Chemicals “Recovery”: Seeing Through The Flawed Logic

By John Richardson

AROUND 90% or more of the price movements in most chemicals and polymers are tied to crude oil.

Add to that the pick-ups in buying than can occur from time to time, based on supply and demand …

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European Petchems: Necessity is Again The Mother Of Invention

By John Richardson

WHEN has a European cracker gone beyond its useful life? Forty or 50 years? Or maybe if you spend the right amount of money, it can last for a great deal longer.

Devoting enough ingenuity and capital …

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How To Select Your Advice On China: Two New Litmus Tests

By John Richardson

SORTING out those who get it from those who either don’t want to admit they are wrong or don’t even know that they are wrong is vital for chemicals businesses  as the New Normal progresses.

So how …

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Why Getting It Wrong Really, Really Matters Today

By John Richardson

It is never easy to admit you are wrong because of the loss of “face” (and for me “face” is just as much an issue in the West as it is in Asia. It just presents itself …

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Just “Black Swans” That We Can’t Predict? Nonsense

By John Richardson

HERE is a list of just a few recent what were are told were “Black Swan” events:…

The Lehman Bros-triggered global financial crisis.
China’s 2008-2013 economic stimulus package.
Last year’s collapse in oil prices.
China’s economic and

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