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China’s Economic Transformation: Free Webinar

Last May’s China Transformation webinar with Paul Hodges attracted great interest.  We are therefore holding s free follow-up webinar on Tuesday 9 September.  As before, it will be run twice, to allow blog readers in different regions to attend.

This …

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China, The US Stock Market And Overvaluation

By John Richardson

THE US economist, Robert Shiller, has a very good track record in identifying  when bubbles have become inflated. For example, as early as 2003, he foresaw the dangers of the US housing bubble.

And so the blog …

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China And Starting From Entirely The Wrong Position

By John Richardson

THE majority of  people analysing data on China’s economy are still getting it wrong.

They think that the worst the numbers get, the more likely it is that the government will panic. Predictions are widespread, therefore, of  …

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Modi: Great Words, All The Best, But We Are Watching You

By John Richardson

IT IS once again fantastic news that Narendra Modi has highlighted the need to improve sanitation in India, as he also did last month.

During his National Day speech last week, India’s prime minister called on listeners …

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As China Stays The Course, Plan For Collateral Damage

By John Richardson

LAST week’s $5-15/tonne decline in polyethylene (PE) pricing in China (see the above chart) is partly the result of negative sentiment created by the start-up of new domestic capacities.

In July, Shaanxi Yanchang China Coal Yulin Energy …

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Asia Chemicals Face Another Disorderly Destocking Process

By John Richardson

ASIAN chemicals markets have gone through another sequence of inventory building that will once again be followed by a period of disorderly de-stocking, warns Paul Satchell, UK-based chemicals analyst with investment and investor services firm, Cannacord Genuity.…

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China’s July Lending Underlines The Real Direction

By John Richardson

WHEN there was a big year-on-year surge in China’s lending in June some commentators took this is an indication that Beijing was going soft on its economic reform programme.

Instead it seemed more likely at that time …

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China Polyethylene: Unreal Growth Numbers

By John Richardson

One of the explanations we have heard for the 20% increase in China’s polyethylene (PE) imports in H1 2014 over the same period last year (see the chart below) is, as we discussed last week, a surge …

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China PTA Imports Halve As Exports Surge

By John Richardson

CHINA’S purified terepthalic acid (PTA) imports fell to just 751,000 tonnes in the first half of this year compared with 1.56m tonnes in H1 2013. Meanwhile, exports increased to 232,000 tonnes from  only 27,000 tonnes.

The sad …

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China MEG: Understanding A Doubling Of Inventories

By John Richardson

THE chart above shows how mono-ethylene glycol (MEG) coastal inventory levels in China have more than doubled since 2010. One explanation might be that the substantial increase in MEG demand since 2010 means that inventories, as a …

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