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Why The US Will Fail To Reach 3% GDP Growth

By John Richardson

THE WHITE House has to clear two major barriers if it is going get anywhere close to its target of raising US GDP growth to 3% a year. Over the past decade, the economy has grown at …

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Buoyant, Calm Financial Markets Fail to Reflect Growing Risks

By John Richardson

THE Chicago Board Options Exchange’s (CBOE) volatility index fell to its lowest level since 1993 on 8 May.

But we knew then that the China economy was slowing down – and that very probably, the Trump administration …

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China’s Drive To PX Self-Sufficiency Again Shows Failure Of Conventional Thinking

By John Richardson

BACK in November 2014, when I first suggested that China might move to self-sufficiency in paraxylene (PX), my blog post was met with widespread scepticism.

At that time, China was moving from a major import position in …

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China’s Polyethylene Market Faces Long Destocking Process

China’s polyethylene (PE) imports surged and domestic production saw strong growth in Q1. This occurred as the economy slowed down on reduced availability of credit and the pollution clean-up. Even if global  producers saw this coming, they had no other …

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China’s Lock-Step Moves On Credit, Pollution Threaten Global Economy

China’s renewed efforts to tackle excessive lending and pollution are closely linked as progress on deflating the 2016 credit bubble will also see progress towards cleaning-up the environment. This will lead to quite a sharp slowdown in GDP growth during …

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French Election: Le Pen Could Have Won Under Electoral College System

Political populism is far from being a spent force despite Sunday’s French presidential election. Indeed, if France has an electoral college system like the US, Marine Le Pen might have even won. Neither is political uncertainty in any way diminished …

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China’s Polypropylene Market Reflects Wider Economic Problems

By John Richardson

WHEN traders acquired big volumes of polypropylene (PP) cargoes to export to China at the end of last year for arrival in Q1, they were confident that the country’s domestic market would easily absorb just about every …

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Brexit: Automation Could Replace Many UK Jobs

As immigration declines, labour costs are set to rise. Companies could thus shut down, leave Britain or invest in more automation if they decide to stay in the UK

By John Richardson

THE BRITISH town of Slough has an unemployment …

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Global Economic Recovery To Weaken On End Of China Stimulus

By John Richardson

THE extent to which the global economic recovery has been dependent on China will become all-too apparent over the rest of this year, and into 2018, as China once again reduces lending. As UBS writes in a …

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US Economy Returns To Weak Growth On Demographics

By John Richardson

THE US is a deeply politically divided country to the point where the divisions are having a profound effect on consumer confidence. As the New York Times writes:

Among Republicans, the University of Michigan consumer expectations index …

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