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Global Economic Recovery To Weaken On End Of China Stimulus

By John Richardson

THE extent to which the global economic recovery has been dependent on China will become all-too apparent over the rest of this year, and into 2018, as China once again reduces lending. As UBS writes in a …

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US Economy Returns To Weak Growth On Demographics

By John Richardson

THE US is a deeply politically divided country to the point where the divisions are having a profound effect on consumer confidence. As the New York Times writes:

Among Republicans, the University of Michigan consumer expectations index …

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Trump-Xi Summit Highlights What’s At Stake For US Petchems

By John Richardson

THE above chart, showing US linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) expansions and rising surpluses, is just one jigsaw piece of only one global manufacturing chain that could be completely reshaped by the Trump administration’s approach to free trade. …

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Global Deflation At Risk Of Returning On End Of China Commodities Bubble

By John Richardson

THIS time last year it was deflation that seemed to be the problem for the global economy. Despite many years of US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) etc. economic stimulus, consumer …

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China Crude Imports: Low Growth Could Again Mean Fall In Oil Prices

By John Richardson

RIGHT now, of course, oil prices are on the up again because of disruptions to Libyan production and confidence that OPEC will extend its production cuts.

Libya might of course be a temporary factor, and it depends …

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Brexit Article 50: Into The Unknown As Political Risks Increase

By John Richardson

BRITAIN enters the unknown today with the triggering of Article 50, the beginning of the formal procedure for quitting the EU. The clock will start ticking on two years of negotiations when British ambassador to the EU, …

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Oil Prices Could Fall By 50% On Demand As Well As Supply Realities

By John Richardson

THE REAL crude-oil supply story is becoming more commonly understood – hence, the recent declines in pricing. As I discussed in early March, before oil prices started heading south again,  supply has been long for a substantial …

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“War of Words” On Global Trade To Continue

By John Richardson

WE remain in almost entirely uncharted territory despite the confidence of US stock markets.

Take as an example the communique released after this weekend’s G20 meeting where traditional language about the importance of open global markets was …

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China Commodity SpeculationThreatens Price Correction

By John Richardson

A SMOKING gun that points to more market-distorting high levels of speculation in China’s commodity markets? Have “circular trades” have made a comeback, where one commodity is bought merely to speculate in another commodity or even in …

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China Polyolefins: An Outlook For The Rest Of 2017

By John Richardson

AS THE chart above shows, China is suffering from a bout a polyolefins indigestion right now as a result of a sharp rise in both imports and domestic production. This helps to explain the recent falls in …

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