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China: Real Story On Lending Says Slowdown Still On The Way

By John Richardson

THERE was a lot of unhelpful and distracting noise surrounding the release of China’s official year-on-year H1 GDP growth that came in at an unexpectedly strong 6.9%.

Equally misleading was the pick-up in June total social financing …

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Income Stagnation And The Impact On The Global Economy

By John Richardson

HAVE the post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) economic stimulus policies of the Western central banks worked? If your answer is yes, you might be heavily influenced by your economic circumstances.

Those who are convinced that everything is working …

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China PP Demand Surprises On The Upside, But Oil Threat Remains

By John Richardson

CHINA’S PP market, provided oil prices don’t further collapse, seems to be pretty close to the end of a destocking cycle that stretches back to February of this year, when the post-Lunar New Year traditional surge in …

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China’s Booming PE Demand Versus Risk From Falling Crude

By John Richardson

CHINA’S PE import growth remains remarkably strong, as the above chart indicates. The May data show that as global supply across all three grades significantly increases this year, with LLDPE and LDPE seeing the biggest increases, China …

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US Govt Policy, Weaker China Indicate Further Oil Price Decline

By John Richardson

OIL markets have reached an important tipping point as the bulls and the bears try to exert decisive influence.

There is resistance from the bulls which helps to explains why, after last week’s collapse in oil prices, …

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China’s OBOR Creates “Win, Win” Demographic Solutions…

…and in the process, it could radically reshape global geopolitics, economic growth patterns and chemicals trade flows

By John Richardson

THE above map, from this excellent FT Beyondbricks blog post by Paul Hodges and Daniël de Blocq van Scheltinga, illustrates …

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China’s Soil Pollution: The $1,000 Trillion Problem

By John Richardson

THE ESTABLISHED approach to dealing with soil polluted by chemicals waste involves washing the soil and treating it with bacteria. These were the methods used ahead of the 2012 London Olympic Games, reports The Economist. The cost …

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Tumbling Oil Prices: Implications For Asian Polyethylene

By John Richardson

DON’T say that I didn’t warn you. Oil prices now look much more likely to hit my forecast of $35//bbl, or lower, by Q4. Such is the downward momentum right now in crude markets that it is …

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Oil Prices Falling Towards $35 On US Supply, China Demand

WTI continues its journey towards a possible $35/bbl by Q4 of this year on rising US shale-oil production and a slight slowdown in the Chinese economy with big implications for global economic growth. And $25/bbl or lower crude in 2018 …

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China Plans 13 New Crackers In Move Towards PE Self-Sufficiency

By John Richardson

DETAILS are emerging of what could be as many as 13 new crackers in China that would all be on-stream very probably by 2025. I originally thought only around ten new crackers would be built by that …

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