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Why The New Belief In Oil-Price Stability Is Wrong

By John Richardson

THE new consensus view on oil prices,  based on my discussions with many delegate on the side lines of this year’s Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Seoul, South Korea, seems to run roughly as follows:…

OK,

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China And The Lewis Turning Point: It Is Here

By John Richardson

FOR the last four years, my fellow blogger Paul Hodges and I have been consistently arguing that China was about to hit the Lewis Turning Point.

This is the point at which any country runs out of …

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How 3D Printing Means No Repeat Of China’s Growth Story

By John Richardson

AS you can see from the above chart, China’s percentage share of the global polypropylene (PP) market has risen from 15% of consumption in 2000 to 33% in 2014. During the same period, however, India’s share of …

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China To Stop Importing Chemicals As It Exports New Technologies

By John Richardson

LAST Friday I discussed how, even without the impact of demographics on demand, it is mathematically impossible to fit one two billion into two billion.

Now bear with me for a few minutes. The themes I discussed …

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Ageing Populations And Fitting Two Billion Into One Billion

By John Richardson

THE above chart is of absolutely critical importance for anybody who is serious about estimating both the strength and nature of future global demand growth for chemicals.

If you are not a serious analysts then, sure, ignore …

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Oil Price Rally Built On Very Fragile Ground

By John Richardson

OIL prices rallied yesterday on an unexpected fall in inventories at Cushing in the US to 61.7 million barrels for the week ending 24 April (see the above chart). This was a decline of 514,000 barrels over …

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China’s Long, Hard Struggle To Reform Local Govt Financing

By John Richardson

A story that moves financial markets doesn’t have to be true. All that matters is that the narrative convinces enough people for a sufficient period of time to move markets either up or down, thus allowing speculators …

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China 19% PP Production Increase Should Be No Surprise

By John Richardson

THE chart above should come as no surprise whatsoever to anybody in the global polypropylene (PP) business.

Here is why:…

Many of China’s new PP plants are coal-based and so are located in inland provinces where job

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Why Getting It Wrong Really, Really Matters Today

By John Richardson

It is never easy to admit you are wrong because of the loss of “face” (and for me “face” is just as much an issue in the West as it is in Asia. It just presents itself …

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Petrochemicals And The End Of The Commodities Supercyle

By John Richardson

YESTERDAY I suggested that a “permanent study group” should be established by the US petrochemicals industry, and very probably industries in other regions, that would focus solely on all the evolving implications of the New Normal.

So …

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