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Oil Prices: Ignore Human Nature At Your Peril

By John Richardson

JUST four months after the blog first moved to Asia, we got the shock of our lives: The Asian Financial Crisis.

We were bewildered and didn’t know what to think, but fortunately, perhaps, there wasn’t much of …

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Want Oil Prices Back At Above $1OO? Be Careful What You Wish For

By John Richardson

WE worry that quite a few people still don’t get it on crude oil.

Here is why:…

As recently as July, as the chart above from the latest BP Energy Review shows, oil prices were from 2009

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As Easy Money Ends, Time To Unblock The Plughole

By John Richardson

YOU cannot fix a blocked plughole by pouring in more water.

This is the core message of this very important FT Alphaville blog post, which tells us that:…

While Western central banks have done their best to

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Oil Prices at $50 or $150 In 2015? Take Your Pick

By John Richardson

REAL price discovery is finally returning to oil markets after years of incredibly harmful central bank stimulus which put the market largely in the hands of the speculators.

But now actual supply of and demand for oil …

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China’s Bogus Export Boom

By John Richardson

CHINA’S strong export growth in July and August is widely viewed as fantastic compensation for weaker growth at home. It also viewed as a sign that the global economy has perhaps, turned a corner,

But now it …

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Oil Markets: The Failure Of Accepted Wisdom

By John Richardson

THE illusion of a strong global economy has been created by central bank stimulus – via the Fed and, much more importantly, via China.

And the illusion of a strong global economy was  accompanied by the “illusion …

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China: Starting All Over Again

By John Richardson

WE NOW know is that China’s real GDP growth is probably heading into negative territory, perhaps by as early as Q4 – and if not by then, certainly in 2015.

But in order to fully answer “how …

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China Heads For Negative Real GDP By As Early As Q4

By John Richardson

“BY NOW I think most folks are aware of and agree with the blog’s views on China,” a chemicals industry source said last week.

“The only things that no one seems to know for certain are 1) …

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China Excess Phenol Capacity A New Strategic Tool

By John Richardson

STANDARD Western cost-per-tonne analysis has never really been applied in China’s petrochemicals industry – and it never will be applied.

In the past, we have seen how petrochemicals plants have often been run at operating rates of …

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Eight Steps To Realising This Will Be Worse Than Lehman Bros

By John Richardson

WE are going through a process of realisation at the moment. It is not a linear process   – i.e. not all people will be at the same stage.

Equally, chemicals and other company executives will move backwards …

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