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Oil Prices: Speculation Reaches New High, As Do Risks For Real Economy

By John Richardson

HEDGE funds and other speculators had amassed a record amount of futures contracts of 885m barrels by 31 January, according to the Financial Times. These contracts were equivalent to almost nine days of actual, physical demand. And …

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Another Layer Of Trumponomics Risk: Equities Versus Real Economy

By John Richardson

THE TOP chart shows that global chemicals industry operating rates fell to just 78.3% in November, even though companies up down the industry’s value chain were building inventory ahead of expected New Year price rises.  This was …

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Trumponomics: 2017 Global Recession Now Almost Inevitable

By John Richardson

DONALD Trump is governing exactly the way he promised to govern by focusing on immigration and trade. Throughout the election campaign he never wavered on these two key promises to his electoral base, the people who were …

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Trump, China’s Geographic Realities And The Risks Ahead

By John Richardson

DONALD Trump doesn’t read that many books. But one book that he should read (assuming he hasn’t done already,and so apologies in advance if I am wrong) is Tim Marshall’s excellent Prisoners of Geography.

The chapter on …

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The Failure Of The Liberal Political And Economic Elite

By John Richardson

ONE of the research papers produced ahead of this year’s World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos highlighted demographics as one of the key reasons for rising working and middle class discontent in the West.

In an …

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Southeast Asia: Confronting The Real Downside Potential

By John Richardson

SOUTHEAST ASIA’S (SEA) economies can be divided into two main categories. These are the heavily export-exposed economies of Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore and the two countries with the biggest internal demand drivers – Indonesia and the …

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US And China: Into The Unknown on 20 January

By John Richardson

WHERE would Apple be without China’s pivotal role in the globalisation of manufacturing? I think it is fair say that Apple with just 12% of the world’s smartphone sales would not account for 90% of industry profitability …

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A World In Crisis: Tackling Basic Needs Is The Solution

By John Richardson

ALL SORTS of experts keep telling us that identifying the world’s problems is incredibly complex.

But it, is in, fact, incredibly simple – all you have to do is to meet Basic Needs such as coping with …

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India’s Currency Reforms: Potential Lehman Bros Moment

By John Richardson

IN normal global economic, social and geopolitical circumstances, Narendra Modi’s decision to overnight remove 86% of the cash from the Indian economy would have been a major risk. But these are not the normal global circumstances that …

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Success In 2017: Move Quickly from Denial To Acceptance

By John Richardson

COUNTING the deckchairs on the deck of the Titanic as it heads towards the iceberg is the exact equivalent of assuming that 2017 oil prices will almost be entirely determined by whether or not OPEC and non-OPEC …

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