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Global Economy Is Less Able To Withstand A New Oil Price Shock

By John Richardson

HISTORY has a tendency to move very slowly, inching forward incrementally, and then all of a sudden a flurry of events over an incredibly short space of time can change everything. This is where we are today.…

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Crude Oil Prices In 2018: Impact On Naphtha-Based Polyethylene

 

By John Richardson

I WILL explain the full significance of the above charts for the Asian and global polyethylene (PE) industries later on this is post.

In short here, though, a great deal hinges on next year’s oil prices, …

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Benefits, Risks Of Petronas/Aramco Deals Serving As Template

By John Richardson

THE PETRONAS and Saudi Aramco joint ventures in the RAPID refining-to-petrochemicals project in Malaysia may serve as a template for further “win/win deals”. Whilst these deals will substantially benefit the companies and countries involved, there are broader …

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China Lending Bubble Adds 4.7m Tonnes To Polyethylene Consumption

By John Richardson

THE IMF produced a very interesting study earlier this month, in which it estimated that if it had not been for China’s giant economic stimulus programme the country’s real GDP growth would have averaged only 5.3% per …

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US Trade Agenda Threatens 49% Of US Polyethylene Exports

By John Richardson

WHICH President Trump will end up setting the final direction of policy? Will it be the President Trump who spoke off-script at a campaign-style rally in Phoenix, Arizona, this week or the President who a day later …

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Soft Brexit, Hard Brexit, No Brexit, A Labour Govt – Take Your Pick

By John Richardson

IT was of course a gamble that backfired hugely. The UK’s General Election would, according to Prime Minister Theresa May, bring certainty and stability to politics during this very important period in British history.

Instead, though, the …

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China’s Lock-Step Moves On Credit, Pollution Threaten Global Economy

China’s renewed efforts to tackle excessive lending and pollution are closely linked as progress on deflating the 2016 credit bubble will also see progress towards cleaning-up the environment. This will lead to quite a sharp slowdown in GDP growth during …

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US Economy Returns To Weak Growth On Demographics

By John Richardson

THE US is a deeply politically divided country to the point where the divisions are having a profound effect on consumer confidence. As the New York Times writes:

Among Republicans, the University of Michigan consumer expectations index …

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Oil Prices: Speculation Reaches New High, As Do Risks For Real Economy

By John Richardson

HEDGE funds and other speculators had amassed a record amount of futures contracts of 885m barrels by 31 January, according to the Financial Times. These contracts were equivalent to almost nine days of actual, physical demand. And …

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Another Layer Of Trumponomics Risk: Equities Versus Real Economy

By John Richardson

THE TOP chart shows that global chemicals industry operating rates fell to just 78.3% in November, even though companies up down the industry’s value chain were building inventory ahead of expected New Year price rises.  This was …

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