Asian Chemical Connections

This article from Reuters highlights the danger of overpaying for assets in the current India M&A frenzy.Perhaps its point about the overall of over-confidence is valid, especially given that previous deals were small scale. Other Indian companies, following Tata Steel's lead, are starting to bid the big league. Integrating small acquisitions to add value is one thing, but multi-billion purchases are another. Just ask Dow Chemical that ended up destroying value after buying Union Carbide.
And on the subject of Dow, will they won't they? The deluge of stories about Reliance and Dow continues with the latest suggestion that the pair are heading for an alliance rather than Reliace buying DowPlus, as you can see from the first Reuters link, Reliance are being linked with a stake in Carrefour.
Is this an unsustainable M&A bubble that could all go horribly wrong if purchase prices are too high? We are still in a global economic upcycle despite recent stock market collapses. What happens when the real slump does arrive and companies are left with assets purchased during oone of the strongest economic upcycles in history, coinciding with a period of exceptionally cheap credit?

Petrochemical markets are being badly ruffled by two recent Chinese government decisions.
In late June, there was the decision to change the VAT export rebate system for yuan-priced product.
And then this week there was a widening of the deposit rules governing import duty and VAT rebates on petchem imports priced in US dollars.
But beyond the immediate disruptions to imports and domestic sales, the long term implications could require a major strategic shift by chemical companies.
See below for detailed anaylsis. But in short here, as China phases out its low-quality manufacturing through these and quite possibly other further measures, chemical suppliers will have to move up the value chain with their customers.

The collective sigh of relief was almost audible late last week when the Fed cut its discount rate - the rate banks charge each other for lending.

Action from other central banks, including the European Central Bank, could follow this week. Analysts also rate the likelihood of the Fed cutting its formal interest rate at its meeting next month at 50 per cent or more. This is the rate charged to companies and other non-bank borrowers.

But still, this credit crisis is not going to away that easily. See more detailed analysis below, but in short here, the implications could be:

*A weaker Chinese economy. Roughly one-third of China's GDP is dependent on exports and if the US goes into recession, this is serious. Many overseas chemical projects have been justified by estimates of persistently strong demand from China for imported chemicals that will be re-exported as finished goods. Sales of locally made chemicals would, of course, also suffer

*Unfunded projects backed by smaller private companies being shelved.

But a lot of capacity in the Middle East and China is too far advanced to be cancelled. In the Middle East, many of the projects already under construction might come on stream bang on time because the producers there can make money in any market conditions. Projects under construction in China start up on schedule because the government wants to gain greater independence from imports.

Let's hope this crisis goes away, but if it doesn't why on earth didn't the supposedly smart people who run the global financial system realise the dangers? Joseph Stiglitz, a genuinely smart guy, has been warning for years about the risks, which he outlines in this excellent article

Standing in the queue for Starbucks (not McDonalds - no way, and my son's going nowhere near that place) it's so easy to opt for the half bucket-sized Grande option because, after all, we are all rich these days and anyway it costs hardly anything to "Upsize". Walk around Starbucks and you'll notice numerous Grande Lates have been left only half-drunk.
And why not buy yet another car, an even bigger one, or an even bigger house (maybe one that's been repossessed in the US?).
Also, thanks to the ferocious cost-cutting efforts of the likes of Walmart - made possible by the developing world's hugely competitive textile industry - clothing has become incredibly cheap.
Move upstream from your wrack after wrack of cheap shirts and the feedstocks - crude oil, heavy naphtha. mixed xylenes (MX) and paraxylene (PX) - are becoming tighter and tighter.
Oil is at record highs, new refinery building has been delayed by soaring construction costs and MX is becoming an increasingly attractive blend into gasoline.
The picture for plastics might be slightly different because of all the gas-based capacity being brought on stream over the next few year.
But the polymer still has to be shipped and/or trucked, meaning yet more pressure on crude-oil pricing.
"Governments should try to limit the amount of synthetic fibres and plastics being consumed through taxation because there simply aren't enough raw materials around," said a delegate at the ICIS/International eChem Asian Aromatics Conference which took place in Singapore this summer.
This would be political suicide, of course, and so what seems more likely is that only inflationary pressures can produce the desired moderation in consumption.
But what if inflation gets out of control - perhaps more likely after the recent interest rate cuts in response to the credit crisis?
Back to bell bottoms, Ziggy Stardust And The Spiders From Mars, Ted Heath and the three-day week and football tackles that were really tackles - meaning, greivous bodily harm. God bless you, good Old Norm'.

I sincerely hope not, but all the signs are there because of:

*A financial crisis which nobody again saw coming, this time with global implications

*What could prove to be too much spending on new equipment and capacity. This time high equity prices have paid for these investments rather than US dollar-denominated bank loans, as was the case in 1997.

The fundamentals are still strong, as today's article from ICIS news on share-price collapses points out. Asian demand is at much higher levels now than 11 years ago.

But the power of sentiment should not be underestimated.

It's too early to read the long-term effect on petrochemical pricing. More volatility seems certain with sentiment driving shifts in pricing on every piece of negative or positive economic and stock market news.

Lower feedstock costs on cheaper oil will also play a role, but as the extended article below points out, the impact on the real economy will take time to assess. It is this impact that will set the long-term direction and determine whether we the downturn has, finally, arrived.

It is very easy assume that Asia ex-Japan will eventually catch up with the West and become as good at "solution" chemicals as the West. I am excluding Japan because it has long been a major speciality player.

All the money that China, for example, is pouring into its state-run research institutes would seem to suggest that eventually, the country will produce a BASF - or at least a collection of companies that come close to matching the German giant's innovation.

But this report from Deutsche Bank - in a theme I will be touching on a lot over the next few weeks - points out that despite the great drift east, Europe has has held its own.World_chemicals_market_Asia_gaining_ground.pdf">

I've created a new category "Analysts' Reports" which you will hopefully find useful.

The Deutsche Bank report concludes that the West has a great opportunity - and has already made an excellent start - in the green chemistry race.

"In 2007, Europe accounted for 31% of global chemicals turnover; in 1997 the share was 32%." write its authors.

Here's another important statistic from the study: BASF's turnover in 2007 was Euro60bn - the same as the entire Indian chemicals industry.

Knowledge retention, which I talked about yesterday, will be crucial for the West if it is to maintain this lead.

Constant innovation through a willingness to fail many times before succeeding might also be important. As Winston Churchill said: "Sucess is the ability to go from failure to failure without losing your enthusiasm."

It's going to be fascinating to see how the new Dow and Rohm & Haas entity raises its game to meet the challenge of responding to the need for clever new products that must also be sustainable.

Finally, here are a couple of examples of Western innovation, the credibility of which I cannot vouch for.

Ford claims to have developed a way of sequestering VOCs from paints for conversion into fuel for fuel cells.

The clever Germans say they have found a way of producing self-healing nanotech anti-corrosion coatings as an alternative to the toxic chromium.

These serve to illustrate one of the other points I made yesterday - the need to navigate all the information out there to keep up-to-speed with a rapidly changing chemicals world.

I'm bewildered. I don't know about you

Mr Obscenely Rich Got Out In Tiime Banker, please look into these eyes, see the pain from the last Great Depression and maybe you will give some of your obscenely huge bonus towards poverty relief.

And perhaps also you'll be willing to pay for all the counselling that the children of this new Great Depression will need when they grow up into adults. As a rich an educated breed, you should be aware that the first few years of a child's life, how secure and encouraged they feel, determines their entire future.

Anyway, see below for my take on the state of the crisis and its implication for chemicals, written for a good friend and contact.

Chemicals demand is being affected by frozen credit markets and the fall in export trade of finished goods to the West.

The credit markets are showing signs of easing thanks to all the government intervention.

But as you can see from this article, the feedback effect on the consumer, and therefore, manufacturing companies, could get a great deal worse before it gets better. Bad corporate results caused the declines in stock markets yesterday (Wednesday 23 October) and as more consumer loans turn soar and unemployment rises globally, corporate earnings will deteriorate even further - at least for the 12 months, I think.

The good news from the financial is that the much-feared credit-default crisis may not be severe as people had expected.

However, the chemicals industry will remain under severe strain for at least the next year, even if the credit crisis eases enabling letters of credit to be more easily obtained (a global shortage of LC's has left commodity shipments, including chemicals, stranded).

The reasons are:

1.) The export dependency of some economies. China's GDP growth will be around 9% this year compared with 11.9% last year, for example, largely due to the slowdown in export trade. Delegates at the APPEC conference in Singapore this week were talking about very quiet demand for fuel products and chemicals at a time when China should be ramping up manufacturing for exports to the West in time for Christmas. Economies such as Singapore are even more vulnerable
2.) The volatility in energy and chemicals pricing. You could probably produce a graph these days linking crude-oil price movements with the equity markets. So until everyone reaches a consensus that the bottom has been reached, we are going to see constant dramatic day-to-day fluctuations in equities and therefore crude. OPEC might cut production at its next meeting, but this will just mean the volatility is within a higher band ($70-90 a barrel is the prediction instead of the current $60-80 a barrel. You cannot rule out the possibility, even if OPEC does make cuts, of a lower range than today - $40-60 a barrel. This would indicate that the real economy has become a great deal worse). Volatility creates the danger of being caught on the wrong side of the deal for sellers, buyers and traders (e.g. high cost raw materials purchased one day that cannot be passed on in higher-cost finished product because of a sudden fall in crude). For resin buying patterns, the uncertainty over the direction of crude is a crucial factor - in a bull market they stock up and in a bear market they de-stock. Crude is in no-man's land and so, combined with LC issues, worries about the overall economy and cancelled orders from customers buyers are remaining firmly on the sidelines.
3.) Last but certainly not least, is the huge wave of new capacity. Polypropylene was supposed to lead the downturn this year but didn't because of start-up delays. Equipment-delivery problems are being blamed, but market reasons seem likely to be another factor. The problem is that with markets showing no signs of turning, producers with heavy debt commitments can only hold back for so long and so will have to commission capacity soon - even if at operating rates lower than planned. For the Middle East producers, now that there is no immediate sign of markets turning, start-ups might as well take place because at the very least on a cash-cost basis contributions will still be achieved on a cash-cost basis (because of low and fixed feedstock costs), just about no matter how low crude goes - and with it petrochemical pricing.

Conditions could get dramatically worse very quickly. One factor not included above is the run on Asian currencies, and possibly even some banking systems, because of the dollar ironically being used as a "safe haven investment".

In the medium term, (the next 12-18 months) the only upside I can see is short-term recoveries in chemicals buying on signs that government interventions are working (with more likely to happen). But these recoveries, as I said, could be short-lived as more evidence emerges of the delayed effect on the real economy (e.g. further falls in corporate earnings).

To be frank, all bets are off on demand-growth forecasts - (so I am sorry this is not going to help you much in coming up with firm numbers!).

Everyone has been wrong and so it's best to err on the side of extreme caution and with a bit of luck we might be pleasantly surprised.

To give you an example of how quickly things can change, a Chinese PTA producer had been forecasting overall polyester growth in China at 12% are recently as July; now it thinks the market will be lucky to get away with zero.

I'd suggest looking at your forecast numbers, going back to those who have supplied the numbers, and asking them if these take into account their worst-case scenarios. Any forecast that predates September cannot be trusted at all.

Hope this helps!

Best Regards
John

Is my colleague in London a cat lover? I am, but did not take offence at the analogy.

If I knew when chemicals prices were going to rebound, I would tell you - but only for some hefty fees.

By Nigel Davis
LONDON (ICIS news)--Beware the 'dead cat bounce'. Global chemical market intelligence service ICIS pricing editors are seeing some spot prices in Asia moving up from recent lows although contract prices remain severely depressed.
Are these the first signs that feedstock-to-product price differentials are recovering?
A dead cat bounce is a "figurative term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a spectacular decline in the price of a stock is immediately followed by a moderate and temporary rise before resuming its downward movement, with the connotation that the rise was not an indication of improving circumstances in the fundamentals in the stock," according to Wickipedia. It is derived from the notion that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height".
As with the world's stock markets, it is too early to call the upturn with anything approaching a degree of certainty. Chemical prices globally are falling because of much weakened feedstock costs.
Oil prices this week have dipped below $50/bbl which is hardly a position from which chemicals prices might be expected to recover.
But looking beyond that, it is the global demand slowdown that is giving the worlds' chemicals markets the jitters.
Industry economists work with real data and they have little visibility. Their forecasts make salutary reading.
The American Chemistry Council's (ACC's) chief economist, Kevin Swift, for instance this week told the New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA) that chemicals production in the US could fall by as much as 5.7% next year. This is a forecast for the sector excluding pharmaceuticals.
In the ACC's 2008-year end analysis and outlook Swift notes that forecasting now involves considerable uncertainty.
The general consensus, however, is that recession is spreading across the globe and this is affecting the business of chemistry worldwide.
"Global business of chemistry growth has essentially stalled since earlier in the year, with outright decline in the developed nations and slowing growth in most developing nations," the ACC's report says.
"As a result, global output will moderate significantly in 2008 and will further slow in 2009 before a recovery emerges in 2010. For the business of chemistry in the US the recession will adversely affect demand into 2009, resulting in lower production volumes."
Other sector economists point to slowed growth in the US and a sharp slowdown in Europe, Japan and elsewhere. The outlook is hardly bright, whichever way you look at it.
Analysts have continued to talk about the lack of visibility for the sector which is battling the demand slowdown, or rather consumer disinterest, against the backdrop of lower feedstock and product prices.
Demand has all but ground to a halt in December across great swathes of the sector. The (multi) million dollar question is when will it return.
Producers widely believe that demand will return once price/feedstock cost ratios have stabilised. There will be a new floor from which producer might expect to see greater interest in their products and from which they could hope to drive prices higher.
But we have yet to find the floor in relation to feedstock costs. And the chemical industry's customers themselves are not exactly overwhelmed with new orders.
The situation could change but is unlikely to do so rapidly and certainly not before the start of the New Year.
Swift suggests that the indicators for the US economy will become more negative as consumers retrench, sales fall, inventories rise, and production falls, which is hardly good news for chemicals.
A similar patter of reduced payrolls, mderating incomes and a "viscoious self-reionforcing cycle" is seen across other major global economies.
It pays to look forward, certainly, but it is too early yet to be overly optimistic. "Things will get worse before they get better," Swift says in his latest ACC report, "but eventually they will get better when confidence returns".

Herein begins an occasional series where I offer advice on how to make a little cash.

By the way, is it me or do I get the sense that a lot companies haven't woken up to the severity of the crisis we are in? A recovery this, and I think quite probably next year, is out of the question. We need to find new sources of growth to replace the US consumer who isn't going to start spending money again in the same volumes as before for a good many years.

Anyway, here is my handy tip: purely by coincidence discover one day that quite fortuitously you have priced your local product so high - way above international levels - that this has attracted competitively priced imports. Take advantage of this wonderful, joyouous happenstance, this glorious instance of serendipity and lodge an antidumping petition.

"Excuse me, are you sure about that?"

Source of Picture: bshort.org

A wise man said to me recently: "All data is wrong; all you can do is make sure you are consistently wrong".

Now this is absolutely not meant to be any criticism whatsoever of what consultants or other market observers do for a living. They are the hand that feeds me and I've never wanted to come across as critical, it's just I wish we could all get it more right sometimes.

Just to emphasise that we can all be fallible - including this particular idiot journalist - here's a story from a long time ago.

I was visiting a certain company somewhere in China with a former colleague of mine with a rather large ego (not sure why this is relevant, other than my amusement at his flustered and blundering excuse-making when we were caught out, rather than the honest and straightforward admission that we'd dropped a huge clanger).

Anyway, we were in the midst of one of those interminably long lunches when an official from the company told us that they had completed a new purified terephthalic acid (PTA) plant in the next field. He added that it was due on-stream in three months' time.

We duly travelled back to Singapore in a state of joy at our "scoop" and published the exclusive story in our magazine.

The following week a consultant called us and said: "Do you know that they haven't even started building the plant yet? They were just putting out a statement to deter others from building - all utter nonsense. Didn't you think to double check?"

I admitted no and he pointed out that one of us should have stood up to pretend to want to stretch our legs or go the bathroom and glance out of the company dining room window at the adjacent field.

Sure enough, the plant didn't start-up three months later and so we had to do some serious humble-pie eating.

You live and learn.

Peering through the fog

On the theme of data again, in the ideal world it might be possible to send thousands of hardworking foot solders out into the field in China to chase down every warehouse of polymers and count every single pallet of polyolefins.

Not not really - don't talk nonsense; in reality, this is far too big a job for anyone.

But why not some kind of inventory survey to help pierce the gloom? If it works it could be extended to other products.

There clearly is a need as this paragraph from an excellent Insight piece on the Q2 chemicals results by Nigel Davis indicates:

"The impact of the recession has been widespread and deep. There is so much talk about the apparent end to de-stocking but inventory levels are still low. BASF said that its customers were ordering at very short notice and only in small volumes. The inventory situation is opaque. There are no reliable figures."

Source of picture: 1st-commoditytrading.us

It's only one comment from one consultant, but this is what he said today about the growing role of the Zhenghou Commodity Exchange's purified terephthalic acid (PTA) futures contract.

"PTA futures have been exerting a huge impact on spot pricing starting 2H July.

" It was up to Rmb 8200-8250 middle of last week, but came off to Rmb 8000 on Friday, which has stalled forward momentum in the PET Chain (PTA/MEG/Polyester)."

Bear with me on this for a possible reason why the Zhenghou exchange could be lagging Dalian in its influence on the overall market.

Polyester producers have only recently started taking advantage of ample bank lending in order to raise operating rates.

Polyolefin off-takers have been dipping into the enormous amounts of easy cash flowing into the economy since as early as Q1.

"The polyester sector is much more heavily dependent on exports. As a result, confidence has only recently picked up with the firmer belief that the global recovery has arrived," the consultant said.

But as he points out there is NO actual stronger consumption of polyester. Rates are being increased on the assumption tha textile and garment orders for the next overseas buying season, due to start in September, will be strong.

Why not indulge in a bit of paper trading to offset any potential physical inventory losses?

And if it's not the producers involved in Zhengzhou it might be the traders. They could be taking advantage of rising uncertainty over underlying demand versus speculation and inventory levels.

Sound familiar?

Garbage out, garbage in

Source of Picture: The Daily Telegraph

Here goes for the second part of this series.

Is there anybody out there who can help?

How will the ongoing availability of recycled material affect the pricing power of virgin resins? (We have the data to show that imports of scrap polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) fell in Nov-Feb, but have since heard anecdotal evidence that they have increased again. If so why?

Questions worth asking on recycling:
a.) Has there been a recovery in availability of recycled material? If so why? Is this because of stronger demand in the West for durable consumer goods wrapped in plastics, which are recycled and sent back to China?
b.) And/or is this the result of the rise in virgin resins since March. Has this resulted in a much harder global search for and new sourcing of the scrap material that is available?
c.) And/or has there been a relaxation in the govt regulations covering recycled material that's made imports easier?
d.) If recycled material is now more readily available, has this set a new pricing cap on virgin resins? At what price is it now economic for converters to switch to recycled material?
e.) Has the rise in virgin resins also led to more fillers being used again?
f.) What's the current state of distribution networks for recycled material? We have heard that lots of traders in recycled material went bust during the big price collapse last year as they were left holding high stocks of material that was more expensive than virgin resin. We also understand that remaining traders in recycled material were interested in trading in virgin plastics in Jan-May because the profits were greater. A further factor to consider might be that the Dalian Commodity Exchange (where linear-low density PE and polyvinyl chloride futures are traded - see later notes) is a lot quicker and less risky way of making money than trading in scrap. This might have also hampered the rebuilding of the scrap-supplier network
g.) We have focused on China. Is recycling also a major issue outside China?

All the questions above could equally apply to some of the other polymers. PS is hard to recycle, but what about the impact on, say, PET resin water bottles? We are not sure if this has even been economic, but could this be a factor behind the lack of an automatic recycling price cap down the fibres chain - or any other chains for that matter?

Source of Picture: ChinaMonthlyReview.Org

Polyester operating rates in China have started to rise on anticipation that the global economic recovery has arrived, according to Leonard DeGuzman, chemicals consultant with DeWitt & Co.

Is this another example of a dangerous price bubble or further proof that we are really emerging from the woods?

"The impact of more plentiful lending only started to affect polyester markets from the second half of July when the synthetic fibre makers started tapping into extra credit lines," he said.

"It's the result of greater confidence that textile and garment exports to the West will rise because the economic recovery is really here."

Polyolefin resin converters have been taking advantage of the huge increase in bank loans since as early as the first quarter.

But their polyester counterparts have displayed more caution because of the textile and garment industry's bigger export dependence.

"You have to realise that it's not just clothing exports that have been affected. Non-apparel going into automobiles and housing have also been hit hard," said DeGuzman.

He warned that the poly-condensation players have yet to see any actual improvement in demand.

"They are just making the assumption that the next big order season from the West for textiles and garments, which begins in September, will be much better than in the spring season."

Another key measure will be the third phase of the next Canton Trade Fair, which includes textiles and garments. This takes place between 31 October and 4 November.

The recovery in pricing and confidence in upstream markets arrived a long time ago.

Benzene was trading at or below naphtha on several occasions late last year.

But prices soared to a ten-week high of $900/tonne FOB (free on board) Korea for the week ending 7 August, according to ICIS pricing - a $55/tonne increase. Naphtha was at $651-652/tonne CFR (cost and freight) Japan.

Overall, reformer margins looked very healthy with toluene at $905-915/tonne FOB Korea and mixed xylenes (MX) at $835-837/tonne FOB Korea.

"Target spreads are $150-180 and so this is a very good position," said DeGuzman.

"This is generally true when crude remains under $100/bbl. When WTI surpassed the $100/bbl mark, reformers expanded their target spreads to $200-220/tonne. They grew as high as $250-270/tonne when oil was above $130/bbl."

The rebound goes back to the deep refinery operating rate cutbacks in China in the fourth quarter of last year, which left the country short of benzene.

Imports, as a result, soared to approximately 507,933 tonnes in January-June compared with 327,982 tonnes for the whole of 2008, according to DeWitt.

Where is it all going? Could a substantial amount have gone into speculation and inventories given that the styrenics and phenol chains have been weak?

The phenol chain had improved in early August, however, although later fell back again on weaker crude prices, said DeGuzman.

"Total benzene inventories in China were at 43,500 tonnes in July which is considered extremely high," he said.

"At above 38,000 tonnes local producers started discounting ex-factory prices in order to move material. Prices start increasing when stocks are at 15,000-23,000 tonnes."

But as of the week starting 10 August, DeGuzman said that inventories had fallen to a "snug" level of 25,000 tonnes."

This is another example of persistently high levels of volatility and uncertainty, making operating rate and inventory mistakes all too easy.

A clear sign that confidence in benzene is high is that pricing is closely tracking crude, he said.

Hydrodealkylation and toluene disproportion units are running flat out in Asia, DeGuzman added.

China's economic recovery has also led to a big rise in coal-based benzene output - a co-product of steel production.

"Operating rates at the coal-based plants were 50-70% in March, but in May rose to 80-85%.

"Logistics have also improved because it's the summer season, making benzene buyers more willing to off-take from the steel producers."

Toluene inventories totalled around 95,000-100,000 tonnes in May and in June were at 90-95,000 tonnes.

At the beginning of August, however, they had fallen to 65,000 tonnes and last week to 53,000 tonnes. Normal inventories are 40,000 tonnes.

The drawdown could be because China's refineries are running harder on the July increases in domestic gasoline and diesel prices.

Moving back down the chain, the overall spreads between mixed MX and paraxylene (PX) look healthy

PX supply has also been tight on several delayed start-ups in China.

Japanese producers have been reluctant to raise PX rates on what they say are poor economics with availability from Japan further constrained by outages, said DeGuzman.

Purified terephthalic acid (PTA) producers seem to have had little trouble absorbing the cost push from PX.

PTA prices were $1,120-1,130/tonne CFR (cost and freight) China on 7 August, a $10/tonne increase over the previous week. Four weeks earlier they were at $1,085-1,095//tonne CFR China.

But, to repeat - what is the extent of the actual improvement in synthetic fibres demand?

There are genuine reasons to be a lot more cheerful than a few months ago.

Chinese manufacturers in general are seeing stronger orders from the West as global oil prices and stock markets remain infused with optimism.

But export improvements are on month-on-month bases.

The textile and garment industry, for example, exported $14bn goods in June, up 13% from the previous month but 10% down on a year ago, said the National Development and Reform Commission.

Positive comparisons are also being drawn with 2006.

This was before capacity in many product chains was ramped up in expectation that 2007 to first half 2008 demand-growth levels would be maintained; synthetic fibres were no exception to this.

The longer the commodity-price rallies continue the harder the potential hard landing.

The Canton Trade Fair

Source of picture: Blawg.lehman.com

This interesting article from Bloomberg says that while petrochemical output in China rose in August, textile production actually contracted.

We don't as yet have any breakdown for specific petrochemicals.

If the overall increase includes higher aromatics-to-synthetic fibres output then the gamble that the chain has taken on improved sales of textiles and garments will have so far failed to pay off.

As we discussed earlier on this blog, there is evidence of higher output down the entire synthetic fibres chain.

A key measure of improvement in exports to the West of textiles and garments will be the next Canton Trade Fair which takes place in October-November.

Source of picture: Wikipedia

Because benzene has so many end-uses it's widely seen as a pretty good barometer for the overall health of the industry.

As C6 led the recovery last time are recent declines a sign of another broad-based retreat?

See the slide below:

View image

Or is it more the problems we highlighted earlier in the week that are specific to the aromatics and fibre-intermediate chains?

PX and PTA have also been on the retreat of late.

Before winding up for the weekend, see this report from the New York Times.

More later......

Source of picture: Chinaenvironmentallaw.com

Talk around the water-cooler in Shanghai offices at the moment is the fall in the cost of a car-license plate in September to a lowest bid of Yuan 27,000 ($3,953) from around Yuan 36,000 in August.

"It surprised everyone because the forecast had been for the price to actually go up to Yuan 42,000," said an ex-pat based in Shanghai.

This has created one of those agonising "if only" moments as he registered his car last month.

But more importantly, the surprise reduction might be an indication of softening auto demand after months of heady growth.

Domestic sales rose by 29.18% during the first seven months of this year over the same period in 2008 to 8.33m units, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

The monthly price for license plates is set by auction so this could be an early pointer of the effect of reduced bank lending.

Instead, though, it might be merely a lull ahead of the long Chinese national holidays, which take place on 1-8 October.

"The decline in the price happened despite new regulations making it harder to buy a cheaper plate from outside Shanghai for use in the city," the ex-pat worker added.

"There were around 13,400 bidders for 8,500 license plates this month as against 18,000 for 8,000 plates in August."

Petrochemical prices are also on the slide, according to ICIS pricing.

Fibre intermediates had fallen for four weeks in a row as of last Friday.

Raffia-grade polypropylene (PP) was at $1080-1120/tonne CFR China main port compared with $1130-1200/tonne CFR China a month earlier.

Again, though, it's hard to discern to what extent these falls are due to a pre-holiday business wind-down against something much deeper and more fundamental.

"There are a lot of official statements in the local press about how too much lending went into speculation in real estate, in stock markets and in commodity markets in general. Lending rules are getting tougher," the office worker continued.

"I think there's also a danger of China following the US by enjoying a dangerous 'wealth-effect' from rising property prices. This seems unsustainable as real-estate costs are rising much faster than incomes.

"As was with the States again, leverage is on the rise through grey loans. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) borrow from the banks at preferential rates and then re-lend to less creditworthy companies and individuals."

Even pig farmers are involved in speculation through stockpiling copper and nickel, according to this article from Bloomberg.

Should we now be searching pig sties and farmers' fields for bags of polyethylene (PE) pellets?

Source of picture: www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23512037/

CHINA is making export gains at the expense of other higher-cost competitors that might not be sustainable because of reasons including rising trade protectionism and economic rebalancing.

Chemical companies need to factor in this risk - and take into account how overall demand might merely be shifting location rather than increasing.

Knit apparel is a good example where, according to this article by David Barboza in the New York Times, American imports from China jumped by 10% in July this year compared with the same months in 2008.

This was as US imports from Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador fell by 19-24%. Barboza was quoting data from Global Trade Information Services.

It is not just emerging markets that are suffering as a result of China's increasing dominance in textiles.

The beleaguered European industries are also in the firing line with the EU evaluating extending antidumping duties on imports of shoes from China and Vietnam.

"Reductions in raw-material import tariffs and increases in export-tax rebates have helped Chinese apparel producers push their prices down," said said Ying Min Ye, president of Beijing-based Chem1 Consulting at the Downstream Asia Roundtable Asia oil and gas event in Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia.

The conference, organised by the World Refining Association, took place earlier this month.

You can add to these advantages a Yuan which is now being pegged to the US dollar, resulting in steep depreciations against other Asian currencies. Between March and September, the Yuan had fallen in value by 10% against a basket of Asian currencies, said Barclays Capital.

A further huge advantage is, according to Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (quoted in the same Barboza article), flexibility in labour markets.

This means the ability to cut wages without worrying about troublesome trade unions or restrictive employment legislation.

The biggest comparative boost of all might well be the flood of cheap lending. China has pump-primed its economy through a huge increase in bank loans.

The US removed safeguard duties against imports of several categories of Chinese clothing last December, according to a new report from Textiles Intelligence, providing China with another edge.

The EU removed similar safeguard duties in December 2007.

Both sets of duties were the result of damage caused to local industries when The Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC) came into effect on 1 January 2005

Here, therefore, could end some of the head-scratching over steep increases in fibre-intermediate pricing in 2009.

Restocking and crude oil have been important factors.

What might have also benefited the market are China's gains at the expense of others.

The country's yarn output grew by 9% in the six months to June 2009 over the same period last year, Yin added at the same event.

Fibre output rose by 10% and polyester production by 13%. Click here for a copy of his full presentation - .5 Yingmin Ye 1.pdf

It's not just in low-end clothing where China is making gains, but also in electronic goods - at the expense largely of the Japanese.

Japan has seen its share of electronic-good exports to the US fall by 18% in 1999 to 7%, added Barboza.

In the last year alone, China's market share of the US electronics goods market has doubled from 10% to 20%.

Sales of electronic materials to China were up by 15% in Q3 over the second quarter, said Andrew Liveris, CEO of Dow Chemical, when the company's third-quarter results were released last week.

Coatings and infrastructure sales rose by 16%, polyethylene (PE) 10% by and the automatic sector 5%, he added.

From a Dow perspective, if it's taking sales away from Japanese electronic chemicals companies all well and good.

But displaced demand doesn't necessarily add up to greater overall demand.

Another important point is that when all is said and done, China's exports as a whole are still down on the first half of 2008.

China exported $521 billion worth of clothes, toys, electronics, grains and other commodities in H1 2009, according Barboza.

Although lower than declines suffered by other exporters such as Japan and Germany, this figure still represented a 22% fall over the first half of last year.

Returning to the theme of winners and losers from China's boom, Australia - despite seeing its currency rise in value by 40% against the Yuan in March-September - has made big net gains through a surge in commodity exports.

It's the same story for Indonesia.

"Commodities and high-tech goods have gained [because of the recovery in China]. But anything in between, China can often produce itself, so countries in these areas are under more pressure," said Tai Hui, an economist at Standard Chartered in Singapore in this article from the Financial Times.

Malaysia and the Philippines were losing out because they competed directly with China in many export markets, he added.

"Market stability has improved, but we continue to remain cautious about the ability of some economies to sustain growth," continued Liveris when the Q3 results came out.

"This is especially true of the US and Europe, and until these economies return to 'normal', we believe global growth will be muted."

This is also especially true of China.

Last week we discussed how domestic consumption was much less than investment as a driver of January-September GDP (gross domestic product) growth.

The relatively high investment component of GDP points to several risks and concerns:

*An increase in export-based industrial capacity. Now that it's on the ground, China will be tempted and able to keep this capacity running, even in very weak market conditions

*At the moment the US seems to be more worried over China's willingness to keep on funding its huge deficits than damage to jobs caused by aggressively cheap imports. But how long will this last as unemployment climbs towards 10%? Could we see a big increase in trade protectionism?

*Bubbles in real estate and equities. Real-estate prices have risen by 73% so far this year. Confusing signals are emerging from the government over whether or not monetary tightening will occur in 2010. Leave it too late and these bubbles could get more out of hand; act too hastily and the economic rebound will be set back

*Assuming that the investment number reported for Q1-Q3 also includes money spent on stockpiling oil and other commodities, will the high levels of imports continue? Monetary tightening is a threat along with sudden dips in import demand as China starts running off inventories

*Meagre underlying growth in domestic consumption. Nominal GDP only increased by 4.7% in the first nine months of this year, indicating that deflation was behind the higher headline number of 7.7% Although a lot of people might have made theoretical and real money out of real estate and equities, this doesn't suggest a healthy state of affairs for the average worker.

A weaker currency, import tariff rebates, increases in export taxes and soft and plentiful bank loans for new capacity hardly suggest rapid economic rebalancing towards domestic growth.

Has China put in place the right policies to move quickly enough towards this rebalancing to keep the rest of the world happy?

Can it move any quicker given the country's social and economic pressures?

By John Richardson

We don't have the actual data yet (hopefully, we'll be able to give you the numbers later this week), but......

......China's commodity chemicals and polymer imports "continued to amaze" in September with monoethylene glycol (MEG) shipments hitting an all-time high, said Jean Sudol, president of US-based International Trader Publications Inc (ITP).

"Imports of most of the commodity polymers we follow continued heavy in September, with relatively small changes, most of them positive from August," added Sudol, whose company provides trade data and analysis on chemicals and polymers.

The commodity polymers ITP tracks showing increases were low-density polyethylene (LDPE), linear-low density PE (LLDPE), high-density PE (HDPE), polypropylene (PP), ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) and propylene copolymers.

"Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) trended downwards for the third month in row with polystyrene (PS) mixed," she added.

Imports of the engineering polymers acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polyacetals and styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) also rose, continuing an upward trend that has lasted several months.

"Among the major organics, imports of ethylene dichloride (EDC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), methanol, styrene and propylene were also up from August. MEG reached a new all-time high."

But benzene imports remained low, maintaining a trend that began in June, with ethylene shipments slowing moderately.

Domestic demand is still a relatively low proportion of GDP (gross domestic product) growth and so a lot of this stuff must be going into gains made in re-exports of finished goods.

Commodity chemicals pricing is more affordable than in H1 last year.

A depreciated Yuan versus the currencies of other developing countries, raw-material import tax cuts, increased export tax rebates and very flexible labour markets have also made China's exports more competitive.

There's also a mountain of cheap and plentiful bank lending to make life even easier for the Chinese re-exporter.

The end-result is that - as we discussed yesterday - China has seized market share in export sectors including textiles and garments and electronic goods.

Chemicals companies whose main business is with China might be benefiting, whereas exporters to other countries could be losing out as could chemicals industries in these other countries.

China's finished product exports might be down in value terms. But how much does this matter if you have such big competitive advantages and state-owned banks willing to bail you out if you get into trouble?

In some cases there could have even been export-volume improvements in 2009 over pre-crisis levels. This, along with the lower pricing, could help explain what seem like counter-intuitively high record-high shipments of chemicals and polymers to China.

There are winners and losers in other export-focused countries.

It's fine if you supply, for example, commodities or high-tech components to China to be assembled in to finished electronic goods.

But it's not so rosy if you compete head-on in industries such as textiles and garments and plastic toys.

Chinese manufacturers are likely to have the capacity to discount even deeper thanks to a supportive government. Further discounting might become essential if other areas of the economy falter.

Even with all this backing, margins are likely to become tighter - especially as the widespread perception is that oil prices are heading back to $100 a barrel. Perceptions make the price through the futures market.

This will leave the Middle East, with its increasing capacities, in a very strong position to take advantage of what could be an even longer bull-run in commodity chemical and polymer exports to China.

More of the cheap stuff?

Source of picture: www.thelocal.de

Some of the China import data for September is now available - showing record-high imports of monoethylene glycol (MEG), ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA), polyacetal, polycarbonate (PC).

"I have given up trying to figure this out. There is not sufficient accurate information anywhere to read a trend. Reality is that they continue to buy to put SOMEWHERE," said a senior polyolefin industry source last week.

"Physical and future markets are continuing to show strength, but export and domestic consumption data continues to be weak."

Now he is beginning to think, like this blog, that a lot of these extraordinary volumes have to do with China making gains in specific finished-goods export markets. A lot more data-crunching is needed to stand this up.

A note of caution and context - a lot of these September imports might have been booked in July/August before the recent price declines.

There could have also been some stock building ahead of the long October holidays (when we get the October figures any dips will also need to take into account the holidays).

If China is making big gains in finished-goods export markets thanks to all of its competitive advantages, you can read the latest US Conference Board confidence index results either way.

The failure of US consumers to respond to better equity and housing markets could indicate a deeper shift in the way Americans spend, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics - in this FT article on the last Conference index.

More thrift might give the Chinese the ability to cost-cut their way into bigger slices of export markets.

Such a weak level of confidence, though, points to a poor Christmas sales season. This would leave a lot of goods left stacked on US shop shelves, pointing to a big New Year dip in commodity chemical exports to China.

But again - this would have to be put in the context of the Chinese New Year in February!

Source of picture: Businesweek

More evidence is emerging of the big rebound in Chinese exports resulting from government subsidies, including a Yuan now pegged to the dollar, soft and plentiful bank loans and export-tax rebates.

More than 9,000 quality control inspections of goods set for overseas shipment took place in Q3 this year - a 32% increase over the same quarter last year, said AsiaInspection, which carries out monitors these inspections.

Book and stationery inspections were up by 24%, toys 32%, shoes and fashion accessories 58% and textile apparel 63%, according to this news report on the latest AsiaInspection findings.

A further boost to China's textiles industry was the EU's removal of restrictions requiring companies to source a percentage of their textile business from within the EU in January 2009, the report added
.
But Q3 2008 saw the collapse of Lehman Bros and the virtual grinding to a halt of the global economy, so comparisons with the third quarter of this year were always likely to appear good.

Export trade has bounced back from its low point. It is widely recognised, though, that it could be a very long time before shipments to Western markets return to 2007 levels.

Still, the October Canton Trade Fair reported a 20% increase in electronics, hardware, tools, transport vehicle and building material exports orders from overseas buyers as against the April Canton Fair.

Together, these products account for around 60% of China's total exports.

And the damage done to China by the crisis is far less than elsewhere.

For example, the country's semiconductor market is expected to fall 6.5% by value to $68bn in 2009, down from $72.9bn last year, according to this report, quoting iSuppli.

This compares with a forecast 16.5% fall in the global chip industry.

Consumer electronics exports by volume are, however, expected to be down by 10% to 30% in all categories except LCD-TVs and Set-Top Boxes, where growth is expected.

What on earth does this all add up to then?

Here's what I think:

*China's exports have rebounded from their low points more quickly than other countries due to all the government support.

*Because of its ability to aggressively discount, China is gaining bigger market shares from other countries in certain export sectors - most notably textiles and garments.

*China is likely to be able to grow market share even further as it can cut costs by even more, notwithstanding a big increase in trade protectionism

But, as we have already said, demand in the West is unlikely to return to 2007 levels for a very long time and so China is only gaining bigger slices of a much smaller overall pie.

The country's export trade has also been boosted by cheaper raw materials as result of import tax cuts and lower pricing.

The dramatic increase in chemical import volumes is partly due to both the above factors - and, of course, stronger domestic demand.

Take methyl methacrylate (MMA) and polymethly methacrylate (PMMA) as examples. Pricing remains way down on its July 2008 peak, as this graph MMAPPMAPricing200809.ppt from ICIS pricing shows.

MMA imports have risen by 293% in January-September over the same month last year, according to China customs. In September, overseas shipments increased by 87% to 16,309 tonnes.

PMMA imports were up by 67% in January-September with September cargoes totalling 20,829 tonnes - a 22% increase.

By Malini Hariharan (Malini is now joint blogger for Asian Chemical Connections)

It pays to have a domestic focus and Reliance Industries has shown this again in its results for the first half of fiscal 2009-10.

Its petrochemicals division delivered Rs43bn in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), a 23.8% growth over the same period last year. The company attributed this to higher margins on improved domestic realisation. The concentration on India helped the company maintain nearly 100% utilisation and hold inventory at low levels.

The Indian market often gets lost in the larger Asian/global picture which is very much dominated by China. But this market has been seeing steady demand growth since last year and it is one of the few markets to have expanded despite the economic crisis.

Reliance estimated PP demand growth at 28% in the last six months; PE at 15%; PVC at 36% and polyester at 15%. Packaging, infrastructure and auto sectors were the key drivers.

The company anticipated a stable margin environment in 2010 as India is expected to keep growing. It also emphasised that it would continue its 'predominantly domestic market orientation in order to sustain high operating rates' - a plan that will no doubt be helped, in the case of PP, by hefty anti dumping duties imposed on imports from Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Oman. A second investigation on PP imports from South Korea, Taiwan and the US is due to be launched soon and there have also been reports of producers asking for an investigation into PE imports.

Expanding the domestic focus will not be easy. India is oversupplied in PP and likely to remain so for another couple of years despite the high demand growth numbers. PE would also be oversupplied once Indian Oil Corp starts its new cracker complex.

IOC expects to achieve mechanical completion of the cracker by the end of this month and start commissioning activity in December. The derivative plants (PE, PP and MEG) are likely to start at end-March or early April.

This is the schedule on paper. But given the many project delays around the world, don't be too surprised if this one also slips.

.......and no trite Public Relations-speak answers, please!!!

This is not me, by the way, (my computer is an older model) but the expression about sums it up

www.scienceblogs.com

No matter where you seem to turn these days, whether it's to the refinery industry or to any chemicals production chain, the story is more or less the same: A wide gap between the expectation of recovery - already priced into crude and equity markets - and actual production and consumption.

The demand-growth numbers from China, taken in isolation and not placed into the context of declines elsewhere, continue to amaze.

Auto sales in China continued to boom in October, though at a slower pace than in previous months, according to data from the semi-official China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Sales rose 72.5% from a year earlier to 1.23 m vehicles, slower than September's 77.9% increase and August's rise of 81.7% - the year's peak growth rate so far.

Sales have been boosted by government stimulus measures that include rural subsidies and a purchase tax cut on vehicles with engine capacities of as much as 1.6 litres.

Demand for textiles used in cars has been so strong that workers have been forced to put in extra hours following mass lay-offs earlier this year.

But, turning to the styrenics chain, an industry sources said: "Downstream demand in all the big derivatives - acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polystyrene (PS), expandable PS (EPS) and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) is very weak.

"EPS had a good H1, but it's now the down season for construction because its winter. Even taking this into account, consumption is very poor."

Spot PS and ABS prices have been stagnant over the past few weeks while feedstock costs have increased, according to ICIS pricing.

"My worry is that it's all cost-push at the styrene end of the chain and so buyers run the risk of repeating the mistakes of H2 2008, but of course on a much smaller scale." the source added.

What on earth is really going on? This blog will dedicate a big chunk of the rest of its life to try and find out.

Just picked up on the interesting news (not sure how big a deal this is) after attending one of those long interminably-long internal planning meetings. But on this occasion we at least were discussing something useful - not just the new colour for the carpet in reception.

So why has Qatar Petroluem bought into Petrochemical Corp of Singapore (PCS) and The Polyolefins Co (TPC).

Interesting that the PetroRabigh marketing arm - the joint venture betweeen Saudi Aramco and Sumitomo for the new plant in Saudi Arabia - is run from Singapore by Sumitomo.

This Dow Jones report, from a former colleague of mine, quotes Ben Van Beurden, executive vice president of Shell, as saying the following: "One of the critical success factors of any petrochemical venture...is access to competitive feedstock.

"I'm hopeful that condensate and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) will flow from Qatar to Singapore as a result of QPI taking an interest in these joint ventures."

That makes a lot of sense as feedstock advantage is going to be crucial for an older and smaller cracker-derivatives complex such as PCS-TPC to compete in the and far more difficult environment.

The giant new Middle East crackers have big scale and raw material advantages.

One of the responses to date from the very experienced and very capable guys at TPC has been to work the trade advantages within the Asean region, concentrate on relationships and higher value-added grades.

Shell Eastern Petroleum operates a 500,000-bbl/day refinery on Pulau Bukom.

The company is building a petrochemical complex comprising an 800,000-tonne/year steam cracker and MEG unit, using Shell's Omega technology, due on-stream in Q2 2010.

This cracker will be fed by hydrowax from an updgraded hydrocracker at the same site and so it is not clear whether feedstock from Qatar will also be an option for this facility.

In Qatar, Shell and Qatar Petroleum are building the $18bn Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant scheduled for completion by the end of 2010.

Condensate will be be produced from the GTL plant, which has been entirely funded by Shell. This condendate has been evaluated for producing petrochemicals in Qatar.

Shell has a cracker project in Qatar likely to start-up only after 2012.

The Anglo-Dutch major has also talked about more petrochemicals in China to build on its existing CNOOC joint-venture Nanhai cracker and derivatives project.

Again, whether the closer relationship with Qatar will have any implications for these plans remains to be seen. The Chinese want mainly one of two things from any potential new petrochemical JV partner - energy supplies (oil or gas) and/or technology.

"If we contemplate new ­investments in chemicals, they only make sense if we can continue to build integrated positions and they rank favourably with our overall capital investment programme," van Beurden told me in an interview last year.

"Everything we want to do in chemicals must be integrated with the rest of Shell. Capital goes first to upstream projects and so chemical investments have to make a lot of sense and clear very high hurdles."

Sumitomo retains its interest in PCS and TPC and so - as often is the case in deals like these - the internal parent-company competitive landscape has shifted.

The Sumitomo part of TPC, now with Qatar Petroleum as a partner, is competing with the Sumitomo share in a new Middle East producer - PetroRabigh!

Singapore's Jurong Island

Source of picture: www.pcs.com

Qatar Petroleum International (QPI) sees Singapore as a good base for expanding in to the Far East, said CEO Nasser Al-Jaidah yesterday after the announcement of the new partnership with Shell.

QPI and Shell signed a series of agreements on Wednesday to jointly own 50% of Petrochemical Corporation of Singapore (PCS) and 30% of The Polyolefin Company (Singapore) Pte Ltd (TPC), to be held through a joint venture company called QPI and Shell Petrochemicals (Singapore) Pte Ltd.

Sumitomo Chemical's 70% stake in PCS and 50% share of TPC remain unchanged.

Singapore is becoming an increasingly important energy-storage and trading hub. QPI's closer relationship with the island state - through the Shell deal - could be key in helping to market and sell big new volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

Qatar's enormous LNG ambitions, through joint ventures with the likes of Shell and ExxonMobil, also leave the issue of getting maximum value out of co or by-product LPG.

There are several options for LPG.

The LPG (propane and butane) can be extracted during natural gas and LNG processing.

It could be used by Qatar for petrochemicals in Qatar itself or elsewhere in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) region.

Another option is to ship the LPG to petrochemical and other customers overseas.

"One of the critical success factors of any petrochemicals facility, whether it is in the Middle East or here in Singapore, is access to competitive feedstock," said Ben van Beurden, executive vice-president of Shell Chemicals, when the deal was announced.

"I'm hopeful that condensates and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) would flow from Qatar to Singapore as a result of [Qatar Petroleum] taking an investment in these joint ventures."

As we discussed yesterday, this would enable the PCS-TPC joint ventures to better compete against the new wave of bigger feedstock-advantaged Middle East crackers.

Singapore is building an LNG terminal due for completion in mid - to late 2012.

Another probably very unlikely option is to ship "wet" LNG and then extract LPG on arrival. This extraction also involves removing ethane - and so again there's a petrochemical option here.

And finally, some LNG customers - such as power generators - prefer their gas delivered as "wet", creating competing economics for extracting LPG and ethane for petrochemicals.

The QPI-Shell deal raises several more questions which this blog is seeking to answer:

*Will this give extra feedstock flexibility to the new Singapore cracker, due on-stream next year? We understand it will be run mainly on hydrowax from an up-graded hydrocracker. But will an option now be to use condensate/naphtha feedstock via Qatar? How would this work as, if at all, as Shell Eastern - which operates the cracker project - is a separate subsidiary?

*The Pearl gas-to-liquids project (another joint venture between Shell and Qatar Petroleum) will produce condensate as well as ultra-low sulphur diesel. Will this condensate, split into naphtha, be sold directly into the merchant market or used for producing petrochemicals in Qatar? Is this still a possible feed for the Shell cracker project in Qatar and/or are other petrochemical options in Qatar? The background to this we understand that there's a shortage of new gas allocations available from the North Shelf due to an extended moratorium, making it difficult for all the cracker projects in Qatar to go ahead.

*Could the condensate/naphtha from Pearl be supplied to Singapore instead?

*Is developing a new project in China now a priority with QPI over petrochemicals in Qatar?

In China, QPI has a joint venture with PetroChina and Shell (China) Ltd to build a refinery and petrochemical complex at Taizhou in Zhejiang province.

"We are hoping to get approval [for the project] by the end next year," said Al-Jaidah.

Perhaps the biggest of all the priorities might be this joint venture.

But whether or how the closer relationship between QPI and Shell will accelerate this project is not clear.

China is on the whole looking for one of two things from future petrochemical joint-venture partners: Energy supplies (oil and gas) and technology.

The existing QPI and Shell relationship already firmly ticked both of these boxes.

It seems as if Lex of the Financial Times is finally catching up with this blog by questioning the validity of some of the official data coming out of China. We take this as a compliment.

In today's column it talks about how the total for first-half Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth numbers for China's 31 provinces was almost 10% higher than the overall figure put out by the National Bureau of Statistics.

This suggests that provincial officials are being encouraged to report high numbers to help create the impression that everything is coming up roses. How can we trust micro numbers, on chemicals production and consumption, for example, if distortions in big headline numbers are taking place?

Retail sales growth of 16.2% in October was also questioned by Lex. These numbers are not a good proxy for real consumption growth because they include shipments to retailers and various types of corporate and government spending.

Strong year-on-year petrochemical production growth recorded for September might be believable because in the same month last year the world economy came to a halt as Lehman Bros folded. Ethylene output grew by 29.4% and polyester production by 33.9%.

The polyester sector might have benefited from market-share gains made in export markets as a result of the 2009 depreciation of the Yuan against other developing-world currencies.

This is the result of a re-pegging of the Yuan to the US dollar, which on Wednesday hit a 15-month low against a basket of trade-weighted currencies.

But China's Central Bank, ahead of a visit to China by President Obama, yesterday acknowledged there was a case for a stronger Yuan.

As if often the chase with the Chinese government, though, only a few days earlier commerce minister Chen Deming had called for the creation of currency stability in order to protect exports.

So it's far from clear if and when China will let the Yuan rise in value, which would likely reduce the volume of chemical imported to be re-exported as finished goods.

As we've said before, lack of clarity on real over apparent domestic demand-growth continues to prompt a nagging suspicion that re-exports are more important than some people think in the recovery story.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said at the weekend that the Yuan had become "significantly undervalued" since it was linked again to the dollar.

If insufficient ground isn't given on the Yuan to satisfy the West, how long before politicians start targeting other "unfair" advantages such as this year's reductions in raw-material import tariffs and increases in export-tax rebates?

On an individual industry level, pressure for anti-dumping and other trade measures is likely to only grow - a long with measures outside the control of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) such as safety and environmental standards - if developed economies don't achieve sustained recoveries.

 Shelf-space to be in short supply again?

Source of picture: www.zrdata.com

ASIAN naphtha prices hit their highest level for more than a year yesterday - reaching $701/tonne CFR Japan for second-half December open-spec material on "improved market conditions".

Earlier this week we picked up more reports of bleak demand in styrenics and fibre intermediates that countered continued optimism in equities and crude markets.

This is also usually the quiet season as petrohemical production declines on weak seasonal demand.

Is the Asian petrochemicals industry ramping up production because it thinks crude is going to get stronger and the real economy is set to improve?

Oil fell to below $77 a barrel yesterday on evidence that US motorists and businesses were cutting back on energy use, according to this Associated Press report.

Have we returned to the demand destruction which caused the economic downturn in the first place?

Despite soaring auto sales in China, there are reports that gasoline consumption is being affected by higher crude, the impact of which is being more keenly felt this year as a result of fuel-price liberalisation.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its weekly report that US oil and gas supplies grew more than expected last week, even though many oil companies have shuttered refineries as fuel consumption slumps.

US refineries had slowed production to the lowest levels since September 2008 and they were importing nearly 15% less crude than last year, the report added.

This is worying when you think of the state of the economy this time last year. Most other comparative numbers are showing improvements.

What perhaps helps to explain the 15% decline is big new refinery capacities in India and China etc putting pressure the developed-world players.

With refinery runs reduced everywhere in the world except China (where the Chinese refineries are enjoying improved profitability as a result of the fuel-price liberalisation), reduced supply could be another factor behind the rise in naphtha.

But let's take it as read that better demand from petrochemicals is the main driver behind the increase in naphtha.

It would be a very risky business to build inventories right at this moment - given all these uncertainties and the big surge in new petrochemicals capacity.

By Malini Hariharan (Malini is now joint blogger for Asian Chemical Connections)

Sumitomo Chemical and Saudi Aramco appear to be in a generous mood. After successfully launching the first phase of their joint venture and starting work on the second phase the two are willing to welcome others to the Rabigh party.

Pic source: Saudi Aramco

Ziad Al-Labban, president and ceo of the joint venture Petro Rabigh, is reported to have said that discussions are underway with companies, including Japanese firms, to invest in production synthetic fibre and other products at Rabigh. He expects a total of 50 companies, including some from Japan, to eventually set up operations at the site.

The product slate for PetroRabigh's second phase, due to be completed in 2013-14 includes aromatics, synthetic rubber, nylon 6 and speciality chemicals. What more can be produced and what makes Rabigh so attractive?

There is of course the feedstock that will be readily available from the PetroRabigh complex and the benefits of shared world class infrastructure. But local markets are small with not very exciting growth prospects, especially for products like synthetic fibres. I certainly can't see a big textile industry developing in Saudi Arabia or the GCC.

I have often heard that the attractiveness of the Middle East fades as you move down the product chain. The closer you are to the cracker the more profitable it is as you then get full advantage of cheap feedstocks.

But Saudi Arabia's plans for a diversified chemical industry are slowly but steadily progressing. And Abu Dhabi is also working on a similar model. What incentives are being offered to make these countries an oasis for downstream chemical production?

Abu Dhabi ahead in the race?

Source of picture: www.gulftrackservices.com

By John Richardson

The global basic chemicals industry is likely to end up under the dominant control of the Middle East, and possibly Asia, within the next 3-5 years, a senior chemicals industry source told this blog.

"We have known for a long time that the centre of gravity is shifting from West to East, but the economic crisis has accelerated this whole process.

"It was easy credit that enabled the West to keep on growing despite high oil prices with some of that credit going into speculation that helped drive energy costs higher.

"Now that the credit bubble has burst we are left with deeply entrenched and very long-term problems, while the Middle East is sitting on a hydrocarbons cash-pile thanks to the extraordinary global economic growth of 2005-2008."

The only barrier to acquisition of a lot more Western assets - including quite possibly high-value technology positions that have to date remained off the table - was politics, he said.

But a second source added: "While I agree that the shifting of ownership has been speeded up by the crisis, I think the West will keep hold of technology positions - especially in downstream specialities.

"Chief executive officers (CEOs) of US and European countries are under pressure to move away from basis chemicals, and so differentiation needs to be preserved.

"But it is true that we have already seen transfer of very valuable polymer technologies."

SABIC's acquisition of GE Plastics was one such transfer with the renamed SABIC Innovative Plastics now seeking to buy high-end polycarbonate (PC) technologies.

The economic recovery, which the second source believed would be sustained, would also give the CEOs some breathing space to negotiate better terms with prospective buyers of basic petrochemicals.

These comments came after ICIS reported that the Abu Dhabi-based International Petroleum Investment Co (IPIC) was in talks with Bayer MaterialScience and four other global petrochemical groups.

But an IPIC spokesman later said: "At present there are no firm plans to do anything with Bayer MaterialScience, or any other chemical company. A number of initiatives are under consideration internally, but nothing has been decided."

IPIC has already acquired Canadian-based polyolefin major Nova Chemicals and is planning the huge Chemaweyaat chemical city in the new Mina Khalifa Industrial Zone.

It also has a 64% of Austria-based polyolefins group Borealis.

"What's interesting about the Chemaweyaat project is, first of all, its sheer scale (it includes several crackers, including a 1.45m tonne/year one due to start-up in 2012) and the fact that the range of derivatives downstream will be more diversified than is already common in the Middle East," the first source added.

"On a straight cost competitiveness basis, you might think that liquids cracking, which is going to happen at Chemaweyaat, doesn't make sense. But this is more than being about straight economics - it's about economic development and job creation."

And my colleague, Nigel Davis, recently wrote: "Dow Chemical on 12 November laid its cards on the table regarding its so-called 'asset light' strategy.

Dow is working through an arbitration process following its failed deal in Kuwait. The company says it is now talking to two potential partners for a proportion of it olefins assets and its polyethylene business. "

The future ownership of US petrochemicals assets in the US is also attracting a great deal of interest because, despite what could be deeply ingrained economic problems, it's a huge polymer and chemicals market.

And as Nubuo Tanaka - executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) - said in a presentation in Singapore earlier this week, shale gas had resulted in a "silent revolution" in US natural-gas supply since 2007.

With 70% of US ethylene production based on natural-gas liquids, according to the American Chemistry Council (ACC), the ground has shifted thanks to this unconventional shale-gas supply.

"Gas supply has become tight in the Middle East and abundant in the US perhaps for the long term, meaning that US petrochemicals is not dead and buried," claimed the first source.

"I expect export competitiveness from the US to be strong for at least the next three years on the comparatively low prices of natural gas over naphtha."

Thermoplastic exports from the US rose by 16% in the year-to-date as a against a 14% decline in domestic sales, said the ACC in its latest weekly report.

SABIC's GE Plastics acquisition gave the Saudi giant a foothold in this huge market, where handling and distribution costs can act as an effective trade barrier.

There have also been unconfirmed reports of Reliance Industries being interested in acquiring LyondellBasell.

By Malini Hariharan (Malini is now joint blogger for Asian Chemical Connections)

China's immense appetite this year for all petrochemicals has been puzzling many of us. This blog has been regularly asking questions and some answeres for the polyester and PTA markets were provided by YJ Kim of PCI Xylenes & Polyesters at the Indian Petrochem 2009 conference earlier this week.

Kim pointed out that preparatory work for the Shanghai Expo in May 2010 was a major demand driver. The budget for the Expo is twice that of the Beijing Olympics in 2008.

The Olympics is estimated to have created nearly 1m tonnes of polyester demand. So if you double the budget then surely polyester demand would be way above 1m tonnes.

If this is true for polyester I think it is also safe to assume that the Expo is also a major driver for polymer consumption.

Kim also observed that the a fall in transaction volumes at the Shaoxing textile market should not be interpreted as a decline in overall business as six more wholesale markets have sprung up in China, and there is even one in Xinjiang. The average daily trading volume at Shaoxing has fallen to 4-5m metres this year from a peak of 6m metres.

Here are a few other highlights from Kim's very good presentation.

• China's 2nd 10-Year West Development Plan will create another polyester boom. Production growth is likely to be around 7% for the next three years but will swing to double digit post 2011 once demand explodes in western China. Polyester production forecast for 2009 is 21.8m tonnes.
• Global PTA inventories are very low and the industry needs to build up stocks. In China, 18-21 days is the normal PTA stock level. But the market is currently living on less than two weeks inventory. If China rebuilds stocks by 500,000 tonnes over the next six months it could swing global operating rates by 2%.
• Firm PTA prices this year have been driven by a recovery in demand and involuntary production cuts due to shortage of paraxylene. PTA margins have been exceptionally strong this year
• China is likely to import nearly 6.5m tonnes of PTA in 2009 and would need to import around 6m tonnes annually for the next three years. The trade grid for PTA could change once China complete its antidumping investigation into PTA exports by South Korea and Thailand. A review has been completed but it appears that Korean and Thai producers are individually negotiating with the Chinese commerce ministry. If Korea is hit by antidumping duties it will be forced to look for new markets. India, the Middle East and Europe would be the likely targets. The Korea-EU free trade agreement is due to start from July 2010 which would allow for zero duty imports.