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China’s “Irrelevant” Target

By John Richardson

WHEN is a target for GDP growth almost irrelevant? Perhaps this year in China, when if history is any guide, even if China genuinely hits its 7.5% growth target, chemicals demand growth could considerably undershoot this number.…

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What Yuan Depreciation Means

By John Richardson

THE truth is that nobody has ever entirely understood the nature of China’s chemicals and polymers demand.

During the good times, at the height of China’s credit Ponzi scheme, if you were a sales manager, why ask …

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China MEG Market Points To Risks Ahead

By John Richardson

SOMETHING very disturbing is going on in China’s mono-ethylene glycol markets (MEG), which, we, think, reflects the following:…

Failure to read the economic tea leaves. A sharp contraction in credit growth threatens to leave 2014 GDP growth

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China Markets And Commentators In Denial

By John Richardson

SOME chemical market players remain in denial or have yet to grasp the real problem in China, as is the case with quite a few financial journalists.

Here is why:…

A widely-held assumption is that we cannot

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Prepare For More Fragmented, Protected Markets

By John Richardson

Last week, the blog gave a presentation at the ICIS Asian Polyolefins Conference in Jakarta during which we highlighted the anxiety over the impact of increased low cost ethylene and derivatives exports from the US.

But only …

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China Polyester “Too Big To Fail”

By John Richardson

HAVE some companies in the polyester chain in China worked themselves into a position where they are “too big to fail?”

And might capacity additions carry on, despite Beijing’s attempts to rein-in further additions to already oversupplied …

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Global Petchem Markets Turn Bearish

By John Richardson

EXCESSIVE inventory building down all the major petrochemical value chains is a global rather than just a Chinese problem, according to Paul Satchell – the UK-based chemicals analyst with global investment bank  Canaccord Genuity in his latest …

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The Purified Terephthalic Acid Sweet Spot

By John Richardson

WHEN is a recovery a sustainable recovery? This a key question for chemicals companies as they prepare their budgets for 2014.

What has happened this year in both polyethylene (PE) and the polyester chain has surprised some …

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Irrationality And Staying Solvency

By John Richardson

JOHN Maynard Keynes, the famous economist and speculator ,  once said “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

In other words, if you are a trader you can sit around for ages waiting …

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China’s Polyester Industry And The New Big Picture

Source: ICIS supply and demand database

 

By John Richardson

THE polyester chain in China is a good example of the dangers of assuming that the big macroeconomic picture will remain more or less unchanged.

Large amounts of purified terepththalic …

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