Trusted market intelligence for the global chemical, energy and fertilizer industries
By John Richardson CHEMICALS company executives are going on the record to say that the outlook for growth in China has become exceptionally uncertain. This echoes comments first made by the blog 18 months ago. At that time, the consensus view amongst analysts seemed to be that China was definitely heading for a Supercycle, when it [...]
By John Richardson SOUTHEAST (SEA) polyolefins demand grew by 15-20% last year in some of the region’s emerging countries, such as Indonesia, according to a source with a major global producer. Confidence is high as overseas money pours into super-hot property markets in Indonesia and Thailand. In Indonesia, property prices have risen by as much [...]
By John Richardson INDIAN polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand is expected to increase by 13-14% in the financial year ending 31 March 2013 compared with just 3% growth in 2011-2012. This is further evidence that, just perhaps, the decline in the country’s overall macro-economic environment has bottomed out. “In volume terms, consumption will reach around 2.25m [...]
Source of picture: Rex Features By John Richardson PETROCHEMICALS companies have traditionally concentrated primarily on feedstock advantage, cost efficiencies and location in order to achieve success because demand during the Supercycle largely took care of itself. This is no longer good enough. In the first of a series of blog posts on ways that [...]
Source: The Economist By John Richardson ONE of the blog’s Indian friends said last week, as he worries about his country’s political failings: “I sometimes wish were more like China, where, when the Politburo says ‘do this’ it is done. “Here we, perhaps, have an excess of democracy. If we want to get a [...]
By John Richardson THE global chemicals industry became used to healthy and steady rates of demand growth during the “Great Moderation” in the West, before the 2008 crisis. As fellow blogger Paul Hodges wrote in January of this year: “Executives could usefully spend time debating whether ethylene growth rates might be 4.2%, or perhaps 4.5%, [...]
In the second of our series of posts on Asian demographics, we look at India. Yesterday, we summarised the overall challenges. By John Richardson INDIA is the home of a booming middle class that voraciously consumes I-Phones, I-Pads, BMWs, foreign travel etc – all the trappings of a Western lifestyle. All that the chemicals industry [...]
THIS blog was once criticised for devoting too much time to the big picture – e.g. politics, economics and demographics – one of the major themes of our free e-book, Boom, Gloom & The New Normal. We beg to differ. While studying chemical-plant operating rates, new capacities, feedstock advantages and logistics etc are, of course, [...]
By John Richardson THE above chart, from a new Research Note released by fellow blogger Paul Hodges, exposes the fallacy that BRICS and emerging-market growth can by themselves rescue the global economy. And, as we have highlighted before on this blog, there are no long-term guarantees that China, the big driver of BRICS growth, will continue [...]
By John Richardson THE Japanese economy is at great risk from the East China Sea dispute which, if unresolved, could result in a long and bitter trade war with China, said several chemicals industry sources. Japanese electronics and auto companies could even be forced to leave China, they warned. “If the Chinese kick Japanese companies out of [...]
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