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Stand Back And Think: Can This Oil-Price Rally Really Last?

By John Richardson

THE talk in oil markets right now is largely about falling US rig counts and how this has resulted in tighter supply.

But it is very important to note that this focus on the rig count is …

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Don’t Bet On A Post-Lunar New Year Rebound

 

By John Richardson

THERE is a very risky theory that I have picked up in my conversations with Asian polyolefin industry players over the past few days:

Strong underlying demand growth in China, low stock levels held by the …

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China Would Be The Only Winner From A Price War

By John Richardson

IT IS dangerously wrong to still think of China as just a cheap, copycat low-value manufacturing nation. Yes, cheap, agreed, and to begin with, as was the case with the US, it has copied other countries’ technologies.…

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2014: The Rear View Mirror

By John Richardson

MOST of my forecasts for 2014, which I made in this post on 30 December last year, look good in the rear view mirror.

I was right about credit availability being the single biggest issue for the …

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The Emperor’s New Clothes: Time To Spot The Obvious

By John Richardson

IF enough of the right kind of people say something enough times then everybody starts believing what they say, regardless of whether or not they have done the right kind of research.

Part of this is down …

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Starting All Over Again: A Ten-Point Guide For 2015

By John Richardson

AS chemicals companies go back to their budget plans for 2015, and redraw them entirely, here are ten things that they must take into account:…

The oil price is not going to return to $100 a barrel

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China Polyethylene: Do Not Assume January Restocking

By John Richardson

THERE is a lingering, and, I think, potentially damaging belief out there that this is just a particularly bad oil-driven destocking process and that very soon, China’s buyers will pretty much flood back into the polyethylene (PE) …

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So Much For The Bonus From Cheaper Oil

By John Richardson

THE big turning point in Asian petrochemicals markets can be traced back to around the end of July for three big reasons:

• It was broadly accepted from then onwards that China wasn’t going to change its …

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Policymakers Have Failed The World

By John Richardson

WHEN the economic, social and political history of 2008-2014 ends up being written, there are two groups of people who are going to end up bearing a lot  of the blame for  the new global financial crisis. …

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US Petrochemicals Will Suffer From “The Blame Game”

 

By John Richardson

THE chat below provides some very instructive reading as it shows that:…

Since 2000, overall real consumption in US polyethylene (PE) has fallen from around 12.5m tonnes to 12.3m tonnes (real consumption is domestic production plus

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