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The Denial Simply Has To Stop

By John Richardson

THE old petrochemicals business model was so fantastically successful during the Economic Supercycle that it is perfectly understandable why companies and industry analysts are reluctant to even consider that it may no longer work. Why on earth …

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Trump And Other Political Risks: No Room For Complacency

By John Richardson

SINCE my post last week –China Becomes Dominant Superpower: Implications for Petchems – more data and analysis has emerged on the potential downside for the US if it ends up in a trade war with China. An …

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China: Planning For What Once Seemed Almost Impossible

By John Richardson

FIVE years ago, the probability you would have attached to the third Scenario above - China’s polypropylene (PP) imports falling to just 300,000 tonnes - would no doubt have been close to zero.

In 2011 the consensus …

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China Becomes Dominant Superpower: Implications For Petchems

 

By John Richardson

CHINA can become the world’s No1 Superpower, replacing the US, if it can rise to challenges such as these:…

Asia needs US$8trn of investment in the decade to 2020 to deal with its infrastructure deficit. As countries

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Prepare For A Global Recession In 2017

By John Richardson

EVEN if there is no global trade war the chemicals industry as it stands today points to the failure of the $27.7 trillion of stimulus that’s been pumped into the global economy since the Global Financial Crisis.…

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China: 2017-2020 Scenarios For Polypropylene Growth

By John Richardson

IS this the moment when Xi Jinping decides to take most of the pain of economic reforms?

A recent article in Caixin, the Chinese business and finance magazine, suggests that the moment could have arrived:

This week, …

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Global Chemicals Operating Rates Lowest Since 1987

By John Richardson

SOMETIMES one single chart is worth many thousands of words, which is the case with the chart. Hence today’s brief post as the chart tells you a great deal of what you need to know:…

Based on

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China’s New Normal Propylene And Polymers Markets

By John Richardson

Here is, first of all, some history. Today’s chart is further evidence of the complete turnaround that has taken place in spot propylene and ethylene markets in Northeast Asia (by Northeast Asia this in effect means China …

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Modelling And Responding To China’s Demand Complexity

By John Richardson

PRODUCT by product you need to build alternative scenarios for demand growth in the key China market.

The future might end up being the same as the past up and down all the petrochemicals value chains. But …

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Polyethylene: A World Turned Upside Down

By John Richardson

THE recent history of polyethylene (PE) shows a global competitive landscape very different from that which most people expected two years ago.

Two years ago, we were told that the natural price for oil was $100/bbl because …

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