By John Richardson ELEVEN per cent apparent demand growth in polyethylene (PE) in China will not go into estimates of real demand growth at no more than 6%. This is our concern based on the latest set of data on the market (see the above slide). As you can see: Apparent demand growth (imports minus […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Finding A Home For US Polyethylene Expansions
By John Richardson EVEN if you take a benign view of the future of the US economy (which, separately, we think is the wrong view), the planned increases in US polyethylene (PE) capacity still raise this very important question: Where on earth will all of this stuff go? The chart above illustrates our assessment of […]
China: “The Dog Ate My Homework” Won’t Do
By John Richardson TWO Chinese plastic processing companies are in financial difficulties because they have used raw-material purchases for speculation, a polyolefins industry source told the blog. “The companies are in trouble because they resold their inventories in order to invest directly in real estate, or indirectly in real estate via the shadow-banking system. This […]
China’s Economic Transformation: Free Webinar
Last May’s China Transformation webinar with Paul Hodges attracted great interest. We are therefore holding s free follow-up webinar on Tuesday 9 September. As before, it will be run twice, to allow blog readers in different regions to attend. This ‘China Economic Transformation II’ webinar will cover these key areas: •The likely impact on global […]
China, The US Stock Market And Overvaluation
By John Richardson THE US economist, Robert Shiller, has a very good track record in identifying when bubbles have become inflated. For example, as early as 2003, he foresaw the dangers of the US housing bubble. And so the blog thinks it is worth listening to him when he warns that: The US stock market […]
China And Starting From Entirely The Wrong Position
By John Richardson THE majority of people analysing data on China’s economy are still getting it wrong. They think that the worst the numbers get, the more likely it is that the government will panic. Predictions are widespread, therefore, of an interest rate cut and a reduction in the bank reserve requirement later this year. […]
Modi: Great Words, All The Best, But We Are Watching You
By John Richardson IT IS once again fantastic news that Narendra Modi has highlighted the need to improve sanitation in India, as he also did last month. During his National Day speech last week, India’s prime minister called on listeners to join him in a nationwide campaign to improve sanitation, noting that many women, lacking […]
As China Stays The Course, Plan For Collateral Damage
By John Richardson LAST week’s $5-15/tonne decline in polyethylene (PE) pricing in China (see the above chart) is partly the result of negative sentiment created by the start-up of new domestic capacities. In July, Shaanxi Yanchang China Coal Yulin Energy and Chemical brought on-stream high-density PE and linear low-density (LLDPE) plants, each of which have […]
Asia Chemicals Face Another Disorderly Destocking Process
By John Richardson ASIAN chemicals markets have gone through another sequence of inventory building that will once again be followed by a period of disorderly de-stocking, warns Paul Satchell, UK-based chemicals analyst with investment and investor services firm, Cannacord Genuity. “The gradual demand improvement through 1H14, followed by another decline looks to be simply the […]
China’s July Lending Underlines The Real Direction
By John Richardson WHEN there was a big year-on-year surge in China’s lending in June some commentators took this is an indication that Beijing was going soft on its economic reform programme. Instead it seemed more likely at that time that, as the whack-a-mole game continued, another few moles had popped up via the shadow […]
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