By John Richardson WINNING an election is one thing and governing is entirely different – as the hopeless Tony Abbott is discovering in Australia (more in a later blog post). We sincerely hope that Narendra Modi proves to be a great deal more competent than Abbott, who has confirmed our fears. Modi’s first budget, which […]
Asian Chemical Connections
US Jobs Revival A Mirage
By John Richardson THE US is well and truly back economically was once again one of the themes at this year’s Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Pattaya, Thailand. It was argued that shale gas has led to a manufacturing revival. Billions of dollars of investment in oil, gas, chemicals and fertilisers projects was cited […]
China Reconsiders Petchems Targets
By John Richardson CHINA has long set targets for petrochemicals self-sufficiency in each of its five-year economic plans – and those targets have been pretty aggressive as the chart above, showing the recent rise in ethylene production, indicates. These have involved often-realised plans to raise independence from exports in a particular product to a specified […]
Xi Jinping Further Underlines China’s “New Normal”
CHINA’S president Xi Jinping, in a landmark speech at the weekend, talked about the “New Normal” of lower economic growth and a different type of growth altogether. He qualified this different type of growth as follows: “Through innovation and technological development, the country should push for the transformation from ‘Made in China’ to ‘Created in […]
China Credit Squeeze Further Weakens “Real Demand”
By John Richardson DESPITE the 26% increase in China’s polyethylene (PE) imports in Q1 of this year over the same period in 2013, “real demand” continues to weaken – i.e. the resin bought by end-users to actually make things. The main reason is that China’s determined credit crackdown is having a bigger and bigger effect on […]
How Jack Ma Is Liberalising China’s Lending System
By John Richardson JACK Ma is a popular guy at all levels of Chinese society. And so, last June, the hugely successful online businessman was allowed to write this in a commentary in the People’s Daily, the government-run newspaper: “Innovation in many industries has been triggered by outsiders.” We think, therefore, that it might be […]
China’s Evolving Autos Market: What It Means For PP
By John Richardson THE tide of credit that lifted all boats in China meant that chemicals company CEOs could get away with clichés such as “the rise of the middle classes” and “increasing urbanisation” and later point to strong sales figures as support for their arguments. But now the CEOs are going to have to […]
China Autos: The Race To The Bottom
By John Richardson CHINA’S autos market is not behaving in the way that it did in 2008-2013, when, as the chart above further illustrates, demand growth was nothing short of staggering. In Q1 of this year, sales growth moderated to 10% – and we think it will go much lower. This 10% compares with […]
China’s Growth Worse Than You Think
By John Richardson HEADLINE growth numbers seemed to be good enough for most China observers at the height of probably the world’s biggest- ever credit boom. Why? Because you could argue that the flood of credit, and with it investment, was lifting all of China’s economic boats. No matter that the wrong kind of […]
Why China’s Polyethylene Imports Have Surged
By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) imports jumped by 26% in the first quarter of this year over the same period in 2013, according to data from Global Trade Information Services (see the above chart). This isn’t the result of a dip in domestic production that had to be made up by imports, as […]
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