By John Richardson IF the blog had a dollar for every occasion it had heard the phrase “ the shale gas revolution” over the last five years, we would be sitting on the deck of our yacht in Monte Carlo harbour right now, pondering the dilemma of when would be a good time for us […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Confusion, Muddle, Denial And Sheer Panic
By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) demand grew by grew by 70% in 2008-2013 compared with 11% in 2005-2008, according to Chinese local production data and import data supplied by Global Trade Information Services. Whilst this growth was taking place, few people asked too many hard questions about whether this was sustainable, given that the […]
China Jobs Versus The Cost Curve
By John Richardson ACHIEVING approval for any new petrochemicals projects in China is going to be a lot harder in the future, is a a growing view across the chemicals industry. A senior executive with a US-based polyolefins producer, for example, told the blog recently: “It looks as if Chinese chemicals companies are finding it […]
Nothing “Disappointing” About China Data
By John Richardson CHINA’S credit growth in 2014 would have to be higher than that of last year if GDP growth is going to hit 7.5%. But in February, as Reuters wrote in this article: “China’s total social financing, a broad measure of credit in the economy, increased by 938.7 billion Yuan ($US152.9bn) in February, […]
LNG As Geopolitical Tool: US Would Need To Turn Communist
By John Richardson OVER the last couple of weeks, ever since Russia effectively annexed the Crimea, it has been argued that the US can use LNG as geopolitical weapon. By making the approvals process easier for LNG export terminals, this would make Europe less dependent on Russian gas – and thus make the Russians pause […]
ICIS Launches Asia PP Price Forecasting
By John Richardson PERHAPS nobody should have been that surprised that China’s polypropylene (PP) market was weak in February and the first half of March. Here is why: · China saw its highest-ever monthly level of PP homo-polymer imports in January 2014 – 448, 000 tonnes, according to the New York-based trade data service, International […]
China’s Changing Polyethylene Demand
By John Richardson ONCE people in the developing world start buying food wrapped in plastic packaging, they rarely switch back to food wrapped in paper, executives in the polyolefins industry keep telling us. They thus talk about a “base load” of permanent new demand as urbanisation increases across Asia, which is often accompanied by higher […]
China Has No Reason To Increase Credit
By John Richardson A FEW hours ago, the blog was so distressed when we read the argument that a 13-month low for consumer-price inflation in February gave China justification to ease lending conditions that we spluttered coffee on to the hotel sofa where we were sitting. Sure, China might indeed “blink” again, which remains the […]
Europe’s Dinosaur Destiny
By John Richardson DINOSAURS became extinct, scientists think, because of an event beyond their control – either an asteroid colliding with the earth, volcanic activity, an ice age, disease or gradual climate change. With all due respect to the former inhabitants of our planet, they were not the brightest of species. Thus, even if they […]
China’s “Irrelevant” Target
By John Richardson WHEN is a target for GDP growth almost irrelevant? Perhaps this year in China, when if history is any guide, even if China genuinely hits its 7.5% growth target, chemicals demand growth could considerably undershoot this number. See the above chart for polyethylene (PE), and here is the explanation: In 2009, when China’s […]
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