Chemicals company H2 complacency?

Chemical companies as a whole displayed “dangerously complacent” views about second-half 2009 prospects when they released their Q2 results late last week, argues chemicals analyst Paul Satchell in his blog.

“They believe that demand has bottomed. Although they can’t see …

Continue Reading

China inventory sentiment survey

london-smog-1.jpg

Peering through the fog

On the theme of data again, in the ideal world it might be possible to send thousands of hardworking foot solders out into the field in China to chase down every warehouse of polymers and count …

Continue Reading

Lies, damned lies and data

Farm%20Park%20-%20Empty%20Field.jpg

“Excuse me, are you sure about that?”

Source of Picture: bshort.org

A wise man said to me recently: “All data is wrong; all you can do is make sure you are consistently wrong”.

Now this is absolutely not meant to …

Continue Reading

Asia anxious over the wrong kind growth

Indiantrafficjam.jpg

Like this for a while longer?

Source of Picture: Bahnuprasad.net/blog

The question, of course, is what is the right kind of growth?

If you are trader of whatever kind the only growth you care about is in aset values. In …

Continue Reading

China polyethylene inventories are high

MarsBars_.jpg

 

 

 

A Mars Bar feast in store if crude hits $30/bbl again

Source of Picture: Amazon.com

 

 

 

Polyethylene (PE) inventories in China at the second and third local distributor levels are at very high levels, two …

Continue Reading

Will Fiscal Rebalancing Trigger A Trade War?

kirk1.jpg

Ron Kirk faces a tough balancing act

Source of Picture: United States Mission – Geneva

“The rebuilt American economy must be export-oriented and less consumption-oriented,” said Larry Summers, Director of the US President’s National Economic Council, earlier this month.

But, …

Continue Reading

Is Dalian setting the markets?

DalianPEvphysicalJan-May.GIF

Make your own mind up about the role of the Dalian Commodity Exchange linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) futures contracts from the interviews below.The first quote is from Sinopec – from an ICIS news story.

There then …

Continue Reading

Where Have All The Flowers/Polymers Gone?

pete seeger and friends.jpg

Source of Picture: http://backincccp.blogspot.com/

Peter Seeger’s most-famous song (being performed here by Pete, Bob Dylan, Judy Collins and Arlo Guthrie) was “Where Have All The Flowers Gone?”

Perhaps a new version should be cut entitled, “Where Have All The Polymers …

Continue Reading

The insidious rise of the Internet….

WoosteinYoung.jpg

“Bob, I think I we should give this up as I can’t get a wireless connection and I couldn’t be bothered to talk to anyone.”
Source of Picture: Faculty.SMU.Edu

.
……and the effect on the quality of data and analysis …

Continue Reading

China’s Great Property Gamble

shanghai-construction-2005-october.jpg

Source of Picture: Chinasnippets.com

Perhaps this post will help explain why a perplexed Hong Kong-based financial analyst wrote to me the other day, in response to my probably failed efforts to adequately explain rising chemicals demand in China:

“I stilll …

Continue Reading