By John Richardson A MAJOR petrochemicals company two years ago predicted that real Chinese GDP growth, as opposed to the “man-made” official numbers, would fall to 4% in 2013 and 2014, a source with that company told the blog. This is tremendous to hear as it means that at least one company was well ahead of […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Strong June, But Shaky Q3
By John Richardson JUNE was a good month for Asia’s polyethylene (PE) industry. Both prices and margins (see the above charts) improved as a result of a reported delay to the start-up of a new big new complex that left end-users short of inventory. “China’s converters had held back for such a long time from […]
Asia’s Naphtha Crackers
By John Richardson ONE industry observer describes some of the cracker and refinery-petrochemicals projects in Southeast Asia (SEA) as “national projects”. In other words, their justification is not entirely on economics, but also about nation building and reducing import dependency. And so, as we discussed yesterday, perhaps some of these projects will be shelved when […]
Asia, The Fed And Swimming Naked
By John Richardson WHEN the tide eventually goes out, we will find out who has been swimming naked. This will also be the case in several emerging markets, ex-China, when the Fed eventually draws down its stimulus. Hot money seeking higher returns has flowed into India, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia, for example, […]
Crucial Six Months For China
By John Richardson CHINA’S immediate credit scare appeared to ease somewhat yesterday when the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said that it would supply liquidity to support banks that have a healthy balance sheet and lend to promising projects if they see a temporary liquidity shortage. But room for interpretation was left open, as […]
China Stays Firm On Credit
By John Richardson CHINA signalled yesterday that there would be no major easing of the credit squeeze that is slowing the economy down. “At present, the overall liquidity in China’s banking system is at a reasonable level, but due to many changing factors in the financial markets and also because of the mid-year point, the […]
Consensus On China Shifts Even Further
By John Richardson ECONOMISTS, financial analysts and ratings agencies are increasingly lining up to say what we have believed since last November: China’s new leaders are so serious about economic reform that they are prepared to sacrifice short-term growth for the sake of rebalancing the economy. The barrage of further commentary over the weekend, supporting […]
An Apology To Our Readers
Dear Readers The transfer of the blog to WordPress, from Movable Type, has led to some technical glitches which we are doing our best to resolve. These have included: 1.) The site failing to display new posts on some browers last week. Hopefully, this has now been fixed. Please let us know if you are still […]
China Credit Crunch: Petchem Impact
By John Richardson CHINA’S decision to make more funds available to lenders in order to ease the credit crunch does not represent a long-term change in policy direction, we think. “The worst is over. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is likely to serve as a [lender of] last resort and intervene to calm […]
China’s Credit Squeeze
By John Richardson CHINA’s leaders have so far refused to back down from their efforts to deal with excessive lending growth, despite a growing credit crisis. Yesterday, the central bank rebuffed pleas to inject more cash into the financial system, adding to the problems of overstretched lenders, the Financial Times wrote in this article. […]
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