Oil Prices at $50 or $150 In 2015? Take Your Pick

By John Richardson

REAL price discovery is finally returning to oil markets after years of incredibly harmful central bank stimulus which put the market largely in the hands of the speculators.

But now actual supply of and demand for oil …

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China Announces “The End Of GDP Growth Supremacy”

By John Richardson

THE views of the small number of men who run China – i.e. the country’s Politburo – have long been viewed as the best possible guide to where the country is heading.

Chemicals manufacturers were right to …

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China’s Bogus Export Boom

By John Richardson

CHINA’S strong export growth in July and August is widely viewed as fantastic compensation for weaker growth at home. It also viewed as a sign that the global economy has perhaps, turned a corner,

But now it …

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Oil Markets: The Failure Of Accepted Wisdom

By John Richardson

THE illusion of a strong global economy has been created by central bank stimulus – via the Fed and, much more importantly, via China.

And the illusion of a strong global economy was  accompanied by the “illusion …

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China: A Deliberate “Snowball Effect”

By John Richardson

EARLIER this week we answered this question – “How bad will it get in China before it gets good?” – in this blog post and a follow-up post that looked at some the immense, long-term uncertainties.

Now …

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China Coal-To-Olefins “A Net Water Producer”

By John Richardson

IT has become the accepted wisdom over the last few years that the coal-to-olefins (CTO) process in China consumes a lot of water.

This theory has been expressed in so many conference papers and in research papers …

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China’s Polyolefins Supply Surge: The Bigger Picture

By John Richardson

ON paper, the polyolefins supply surge in China during 2014 is huge as it involves:…

Some 2.2m tonnes/year of new  polyethylene (PE) capacity, according to this ICIS news article.
No less than 4.1m tonnes/year of new polypropylene

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China: Starting All Over Again

By John Richardson

WE NOW know is that China’s real GDP growth is probably heading into negative territory, perhaps by as early as Q4 – and if not by then, certainly in 2015.

But in order to fully answer “how …

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China Heads For Negative Real GDP By As Early As Q4

By John Richardson

“BY NOW I think most folks are aware of and agree with the blog’s views on China,” a chemicals industry source said last week.

“The only things that no one seems to know for certain are 1) …

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China: Do You Really Know Where Your Product Ends Up?

By John Richardson

AS a senior Chinese official announces that investigations into metals trading fraud have been extended from 13 to 24 provinces, and that $10bn worth of fraud could be involved, it stands to reason that these complex webs …

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