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China PP Demand Surprises On The Upside, But Oil Threat Remains

By John Richardson

CHINA’S PP market, provided oil prices don’t further collapse, seems to be pretty close to the end of a destocking cycle that stretches back to February of this year, when the post-Lunar New Year traditional surge in …

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China’s Booming PE Demand Versus Risk From Falling Crude

By John Richardson

CHINA’S PE import growth remains remarkably strong, as the above chart indicates. The May data show that as global supply across all three grades significantly increases this year, with LLDPE and LDPE seeing the biggest increases, China …

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US Govt Policy, Weaker China Indicate Further Oil Price Decline

By John Richardson

OIL markets have reached an important tipping point as the bulls and the bears try to exert decisive influence.

There is resistance from the bulls which helps to explains why, after last week’s collapse in oil prices, …

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Tumbling Oil Prices: Implications For Asian Polyethylene

By John Richardson

DON’T say that I didn’t warn you. Oil prices now look much more likely to hit my forecast of $35//bbl, or lower, by Q4. Such is the downward momentum right now in crude markets that it is …

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Oil Prices Falling Towards $35 On US Supply, China Demand

WTI continues its journey towards a possible $35/bbl by Q4 of this year on rising US shale-oil production and a slight slowdown in the Chinese economy with big implications for global economic growth. And $25/bbl or lower crude in 2018 …

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China Plans 13 New Crackers In Move Towards PE Self-Sufficiency

By John Richardson

DETAILS are emerging of what could be as many as 13 new crackers in China that would all be on-stream very probably by 2025. I originally thought only around ten new crackers would be built by that …

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China PP Market Underlines Return To Global Deflation

By John Richardson

CHINA’S polypropylene (PP) net trade, which is imports minus exports, fell by 31% on a month-on-month basis in April to around 316,000 tonnes. That was to be expected given the 42% surge in net trade in Q1 …

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China’s “Appetite For Pain” Makes $35/bbl Crude More Likely

The Chinese government is showing great determination in its latest battle against excessive and highly speculative lending. This will carry on as a cushion of strong GDP growth has been created, allowing a slowdown that will surprise many people with …

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US Polyethylene Industry: Scenarios For 2017-2020

By John Richardson

IT has been a remarkably strong few years for the US polyethylene (PE) business. The shale gas revolution has sent ethane costs plummeting, resulting in the kind of margins that you can see in the above chart. …

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China Moves Towards Commodity Grade PE Self-Sufficiency By 2025

By John Richardson

THE argument I’ve been making for a couple of years now is that the history of petrochemicals in China suggests a constant drive towards much greater self-sufficiency. No value chain is immune, I have kept contending.

The …

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