Archive | Polyolefins RSS feed for this section

China Moves Towards Commodity Grade PE Self-Sufficiency By 2025

By John Richardson

THE argument I’ve been making for a couple of years now is that the history of petrochemicals in China suggests a constant drive towards much greater self-sufficiency. No value chain is immune, I have kept contending.

The …

Continue Reading

China’s Drive To PX Self-Sufficiency Again Shows Failure Of Conventional Thinking

By John Richardson

BACK in November 2014, when I first suggested that China might move to self-sufficiency in paraxylene (PX), my blog post was met with widespread scepticism.

At that time, China was moving from a major import position in …

Continue Reading

China’s Polyethylene Market Faces Long Destocking Process

China’s polyethylene (PE) imports surged and domestic production saw strong growth in Q1. This occurred as the economy slowed down on reduced availability of credit and the pollution clean-up. Even if global  producers saw this coming, they had no other …

Continue Reading

China’s Lock-Step Moves On Credit, Pollution Threaten Global Economy

China’s renewed efforts to tackle excessive lending and pollution are closely linked as progress on deflating the 2016 credit bubble will also see progress towards cleaning-up the environment. This will lead to quite a sharp slowdown in GDP growth during …

Continue Reading

China Polyethylene Self-Sufficiency: The Right Questions To Ask

By John Richardson

THERE is a lot of talk right now about now China’s coal-to-olefins (CTO) capacity additions are slowing down on rising concerns over the emissions produced by the technology.

A further factor behind the widespread view that capacity …

Continue Reading

Brexit, US-China Trade Talks: Time Is Running Out

By John Richardson

BY MARCH 2019, Britain needs to have successfully negotiated the terms of Brexit – and be certain that when the clock stops ticking the terms of the deal will work in practice.

And the task of hitting …

Continue Reading

Credit, Commodities And China: History May Soon Repeat Itself

By John Richardson

YOU should be getting that strong feeling that history might be about to repeat itself when you look at the January-February data on China’s petrochemicals markets. In polypropylene (PP), polyethylene, styrene, mono-ethylene glycol, phenol and acetone, the …

Continue Reading

Trump-Xi Summit Highlights What’s At Stake For US Petchems

By John Richardson

THE above chart, showing US linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) expansions and rising surpluses, is just one jigsaw piece of only one global manufacturing chain that could be completely reshaped by the Trump administration’s approach to free trade. …

Continue Reading

New Petchems Business Model Based On Trading Blocs

By John Richardson

THE above chart should give every analyst who thinks low feedstock costs are by themselves guarantee of success in petrochemicals pause for thought:…

US net polyethylene (PE) exports in 2016 were 5,000 tonnes lower than in 2015,

Continue Reading

Oil Prices Could Fall By 50% On Demand As Well As Supply Realities

By John Richardson

THE REAL crude-oil supply story is becoming more commonly understood – hence, the recent declines in pricing. As I discussed in early March, before oil prices started heading south again,  supply has been long for a substantial …

Continue Reading