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China: When Sentiment Tells Us Something Important

By John Richardson

THE blog once asked a seasoned petrochemicals industry consultant what the price of polypropylene (PP) was.

“It depends on whether the Hong Kong traders are in a good or a bad mood this morning,” was his reply.…

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China Consumer Confidence “The Worst In 17 Years”

By John Richardson

LAST year, the blog was told that business at some high-end restaurants in Beijing had fallen by as much as 90% because of the government’s crackdown on corruption.

And China’s top military officials are scared to even …

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China’s “Irrelevant” Target

By John Richardson

WHEN is a target for GDP growth almost irrelevant? Perhaps this year in China, when if history is any guide, even if China genuinely hits its 7.5% growth target, chemicals demand growth could considerably undershoot this number.…

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The Future For China Auto Sales

By John Richardson

The distance from end-use markets didn’t matter for chemicals and polymers producers during the 2008-2013 credit surge in China because, as we said yesterday, demand was so good that few people were willing to ask too many …

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What Yuan Depreciation Means

By John Richardson

THE truth is that nobody has ever entirely understood the nature of China’s chemicals and polymers demand.

During the good times, at the height of China’s credit Ponzi scheme, if you were a sales manager, why ask …

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China Markets And Commentators In Denial

By John Richardson

SOME chemical market players remain in denial or have yet to grasp the real problem in China, as is the case with quite a few financial journalists.

Here is why:…

A widely-held assumption is that we cannot

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China Targets Trade Finance

By John Richardson

AT the high inflation point of any financial bubble, you tend to get outlandishly dangerous and dodgy practices designed to make even more money because most people think that “this time will be different” – i.e. that …

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China: More Credit For Less Growth

By John Richardson

REMEMBER this time last year when a surge in credit availability occurred in China,  thanks to the shadow-banking system?

This helped support a pick-up in economic activity in the second half of the year, including stronger chemicals …

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China’s About Turn: The Seven Global Implications

By John Richardson

HISTORIANS will end up concluding that falling emerging market currencies and stock markets – the prelude to what could be a full-blown crisis –  is really about China and not about the US Federal Reserve. The Fed …

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US Housing Recovery? What Recovery?

 

By John Richardson

A SUSTAINED US housing recovery is vital for the global petrochemicals industry because, without it, far too much of the 64% of ethylene capacity, which is due to be added in the States, will have to …

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