By John Richardson GLOBAL stock markets will now doubt respond negatively to the news that China’s official GDP growth in Q3 fell to a 30-year low of 6%. But it important to put this event into the proper context. First of all, nobody has ever been able to trust of the official GDP growth numbers. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Surge in US polyethylene exports occurs as China growth slows, Asian margins turn negative
By John Richardson PERHAPS ONE could argue, but I certainly wouldn’t, that in a perfect world the extraordinary rise in US polyethylene (PE) exports, which are detailed in the chart on the left, would have just about found a comfortable home. But when has the world ever been perfect? It certainly isn’t today: The IMF […]
Little prospects of genuine US and China deal leave US petrochemicals exports very vulnerable
As always, this blog post expresses my own personal views and these are not the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson TEN HOURS before I wrote this blog post, the South China Morning Post published an article headlined, “Dim prospects for a deal as China and US resume trade war talks”. The newspaper said […]
The new China and the rise of the Millennials transform the petrochemicals business model
By John Richardson ANYONE who has anything to do with the petrochemicals industry or anything to do with the global economy, in other words all of us, needs to pay close attention to the above chart and what it is telling us. This once again demonstrates the enormous value of the ICIS Supply & Demand […]
Further collapse in China auto sales underlines radical change in petrochemicals business model
By John Richardson HAVE FEEDSTOCK will build has been the route to success for many years in the petrochemicals business. If you have never experienced anything else then a change in the paradigm is very hard to come to terms with. What often instead happens is that a new paradigm is simply rejected in favour […]
President Trump can only cause major economic damage by beating China, unless he has a time machine
The views in this blog, are, as always, my own personal views and don’t reflect the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson LORD SALISBURY, who served as British Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, understood it was impossible to turn back time to the American Civil of […]
Unsustainable boom in China auto market ends as sales of new vehicles move permanently lower
By John Richardson THERE IS a big temptation when making forecasts of becoming too excited about the recent past. Judgements are at risk of being blurred by euphoria, resulting in very bad investment decisions based on the notion that the recent past will reflect the long-term future. Paradigm shifts do occur from time to time. […]
Global PP demand could be 81.5m tonnes less than forecast in 2019-2028 as China Debt Supercycle ends
By John Richardson SOME PEOPLE argue that despite the rapid rise in Chinese consumer debt over the last few years, there is nothing to worry about because consumer debt as a percentage of GDP China still lags behind Western countries. This misses the point and is an example of the dangerous “all is right with […]
China imposes trade-war tariffs in US LDPE and raises tariffs on HDPE and LLDPE
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you. As I predicted, China has levied trade-war tariffs on US LDPE as the long term US and China battles over trade, technology and geopolitics intensify. US LDPE imports will be subject to 10% tariffs from 15 December. The 25% tariffs that China imposed on US HDPE […]
President Trump’s tariff concession adds to uncertainties as we drift towards a bipolar world
The following opinions are my personal views, and, as always, do not express the views of ICIS By John Richardson PRESIDENT TRUMP could have blinked at the prospect of Christmas shoppers punishing him at the ballot box for the increased cost of gifts beneath their trees. This is what I think is behind his decision […]