By John Richardson TIME and again over the last ten years the strength or weakness of Chinese chemicals and polymers demand has taken everyone by surprise. One method of analysis that does hold considerable value as a methodology for forecasting growth might be predictions of future credit flows for some chemicals. The big uptick in […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s vital internet economy cannot be sacrificed for trade deal
By John Richardson THE latest stumbling block for the US/China trade talks is the Chinese reluctance to open up its market to foreign cloud computing companies, curb requirements for companies to store data locally and loosen restrictions on the transfer of data overseas. Many people’s first reaction will be that this is all about the […]
Big jump in China PE imports points to destocking as demand prospects weaken
By John Richardson CHINA’S official PE imports and exports are finally out for January-September 2018 after a very long delay. Until a week ago, official data was only available up until March. Reasons for the delayed release are not understood. What the data show is that on a year-on-year basis, net imports (imports minus exports) […]
Middle East, India, SEA petchems winners in new trading blocs
By John Richardson JACK MA, the founder of Alibaba, said of the US/China trade war, “It’s going to last a long time, maybe 20 years. It’s going to be a mess. It’s not a trade war, it’s about competition between two countries.” I believe that the world is set to be split into two trading blocs, […]
China’s 74% Fall In High-Risk Lending Points To New Slowdown
By John Richardson THE above chart should give you a feeling of déjà vu. In early 2014, Chinese lending growth started to decline and by September of that year, broad recognition of the extent of the decline was behind a sharp retreat in global commodities prices as the global economy also slowed. History very often […]
China Scrap Plastic Crackdown: 1-2% Boost To Polyolefins Demand
By John Richardson THE DECLINE in China’s imports of scrap or waste plastic and cardboard could boost 2018 virgin polypropylene (PP) consumption in China by some 1% above our base case. Meanwhile, polyethylene (PE) demand may be 2% higher For details on what this would mean in terms of tonnes, subscribe to our monthly Asia […]
China’s Xi: Squaring Circle Of Poverty Alleviation, Environment
By John Richardson THE ONLY China that most foreigners have visited, including myself, is the southern and eastern seaboard provinces where all the talk is about booming poylolefins and other polymers demand on the rise in middle class consumption. So strong is middle class consumption growth via mobile internet sales that the multiples of polyethylene […]
Next Polyethylene Downcycle: Risk That History Will Repeat Itself
By John Richardson WE can break the history of the global polyethylene (PE) business so far this century into four major phases, thanks to the above chart, which was compiled with the help of our excellent Supply & Demand Database: 2000-2001: Global polyethylene (PE) operating rates dipped to an average of 81% on the end […]
China’s 19th Party Congress: Stronger President Xi Good For Petchems Growth
By John Richardson I SEE three Scenarios for Chinese economic growth, and so of course petrochemicals demand growth, in 2018-2025. See below where I detail how these three Scenarios would affect growth in demand for polypropylene (PP). But first of all, let’s deal with the issue of the 19th National Party Congress meeting, which begins […]
Three Scenarios For 2018-2025 China Polyethylene Demand Growth
By John Richardson CHINA leads the world in many aspects of renewable energy and has an electric vehicle industry that is receiving the kind of state support that is very probably making foreign competitors green with envy. The explosion of commerce via the mobile internet takes your breath away. Average per person spending on mobile […]