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Asian Chemical Connections

Nothing Has Changed In Japan

By John Richardson THE Nikkei Index has risen by more than 30% since November (see the chart below). Earlier this week, the Nikkei was at its highest level since September 2008.   Global stock markets are, in general, of course, on a roll. This is fantastic news for the day traders and the electronic traders, […]

World Heading For L-Shaped Recovery

Mr Bernanke, please take note By John Richardson The recovery is always six months away and so while most people have written-off the first half of next year, the hope is that by H2 everything will be back to normal. But as fellow blogger Paul Hodges points out in this video, which he further underlines […]

Central Bankers Making Global Economy Worse

By John Richardson A NEW research note from our colleagues at International eChem discusses how central bankers have pledged to do “whatever it takes” to achieve a sustainable economic recovery. Click here for a full copy – Research-Note-24Sept12.pdf. Their well-meaning efforts have failed, and are instead likely to do the exact reverse of what is […]

Failure Of Central Bankers

Source of graph: Reuters   By John Richardson THE Federal Reserve has got it badly wrong, and could compound its mistake by launching a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), warns Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and global macro at Morgan Stanley. “The first two rounds of quantitative easing fuelled a commodity bubble, increased […]

As Oil Rises Demand Weakens

By John Richardson A barrel of Brent crude oil cost $88.49 a barrel in June. Yesterday, it was trading at $116.55 a barrel. In the intervening period the global economy has substantially weakened, most notably in the case of China, as the problems that have been identifiable since late last year have become widely recognised. […]

China’s VUCA Moment

  Ben Bernanke. Source of picture: Wikipedia   By John Richardson OUR next three blog posts will examine some of the threats to a recovery in China’s chemicals and polymer demand growth over the next 12-18 months. We will look at: *Debt. Is China already confronting a Ben Bernanke moment? (In November 2007, the Fed […]

Clinging On To Vain Hopes

By John Richardson ANYONE clinging on to the hope that the weakness in the global polyolefin market is merely down to China going through a prolonged period of destocking could face a rude awakening. China’s polyethylene (PE) demand was down 4% in January-May this year, at 7.1m tonnes, compared with the same period in 2010. […]

Chemicals Buying & The IEA Decision

  By John Richardson CHEMICALS and polymer demand looks even less likely to be supported by “buying forward” following yesterday’s decision by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release 60m barrels of crude into the market. Here is a bit of context first before we look at the implications of the IEA decision, which, along […]

Chemicals “Spin” Will Continue

By John Richardson THE reluctance of sell-side chemicals analysts to downgrade their forecasts should be severely tested by the Federal Reserve’s decision to downgrade its outlook for the US economy. US GDP growth will now be only 2.7-2.9% in 2011 compared with the April estimate of 3.1% to 3.3%, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke told a […]

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